Tinubu, EFCC and Saturday’s Osun governorship election

By KAZEEM AKINTUNDE

A total of 2.34 million registered voters are expected to cast their ballot on Saturday to elect a new Governor for Osun State. The voters are to choose amongst 14 governorship candidates cleared by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) for the exercise. Of the 14 candidates, this year’s election is going to be a straight race between the incumbent governor, Ademola Adeleke of the Accord Party (AP), and Bola Oyebamiji of the All Progressive Congress (APC).

The People’s Democratic Party (PDP) under which umbrella Adeleke was elected in 2022 has been left comatose after an atrocious in-fighting by its leaders at the national level. The face-off eventually forced Adeleke to jump ship when it became glaring that it may mar his chances at the poll.

Even before the first ballot is cast, the build up to the election has generated a lot of heat which has necessitated the intervention of President Bola Tinubu. Few days to the D-day, the Economic and Financial Crime Commission (EFCC) wrote to First Bank, one of the financial institutions in the country, that the state government had an account with, that the state government is under investigation and that it should not to honour any withdrawal authorized by the government until conclusion of the Commission’s ongoing investigations regarding alleged fraudulent handling of Ecology Funds, Intervention Funds, and the Federal Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) account to the tune of N11 billion. The anti-graft agency stated that some officials of the state government, especially the Accountant General, had been invited for questioning and that the ongoing investigation since March, 2026 necessitated the placement of a Post-No-Debit order due to the movement of large funds from the accounts to different suspicious accounts since August 2, 2026. ‘’We noticed huge transfers of funds into different corporate entities and we had to swiftly halt the trend by freezing the accounts,’’ the EFCC stated.

The move, coming few days to the election, was glaring, even to the blind that the EFCC’s action was meant to cripple the state government’s access to state funds to ‘prosecute’ the election. It is an open secret in Nigeria that political leaders, particularly state governors, deploy state resources to their parties during electioneering campaigns and that Adeleke, having access to state funds, could deploy it to his advantage.

The EFCC’s move, allegedly carried out without a court order, was condemned by many Nigerians and President Tinubu, reading the writing on the wall, directed the EFCC to proceed to the court for an order to vacate the PND on the state account. In a statement he personally signed, Tinubu said that he was deeply embarrassed, not by the EFCC’s exercise of its mandate backed by a court order, but by the timing of the agency’s action. ‘’This is so because every action taken by an institution of state, especially at the federal level, is always credited to me, as the President, even when I may not have had any prior knowledge of the action. Osun State is only a few days away from its gubernatorial election. Therefore, nothing ought to be done to give an impression that the EFCC, or indeed, any other agency of the federal government is being used to interfere with the election. Based on the foregoing premise, I am duty-bound to issue a directive on this issue in consonance with the overriding public interest in preserving public confidence and the integrity, credibility, and fairness of our democratic process,’’ Tinubu stated.

The EFCC, by that singular act, may have unwittingly tilted victory in Saturday’s election in the direction of Adeleke. Although, long before the EFCC’s action, many opinion polls in the state have given Adeleke an edge over the APC due to what many residents of Osun State described as his above average performance. But the EFCC’s action will also get him more sympathy votes in the poll. Aside that, he comes from a well-respected family in the state. His elder brother, Isiaka Adeleke, was a governor who was well loved by the people of the state.

The APC lost a lot of goodwill during the eight-year reign of former Governor, Rauf Aregbesola. Although he came up with many noble policies, his shabby treatment of civil servants in the state by not fully paying staff salaries dented the image of the party in the minds of the people. Gboyega Oyetola, who took over from him, was a bit better, but he also could not secure a second term ticket.

The APC could have avoided this looming electoral defeat when Adeleke approached the party for possible decampment after the crisis in the PDP became intractable. The Governor, along with his cousin, David Adeleke, went to Abuja to have a private session with President Tinubu, where he told Tinubu of his willingness to decamp to the APC provided that he would be given the governorship ticket. While Tinubu was favourably disposed to Adeleke joining the Party, APC members at the state level did all within their power to frustrate the move, describing Adeleke as a political liability and a ‘Trojan horse’ seeking asylum in the party ahead of the 2026 poll.

The man that was rejected by the APC has succeeded in collapsing the PDP structure in the state into the relatively unknown Accord Party and is now the candidate to beat in Saturday’s election, federal might notwithstanding.

Again, the APC is going into the contest with a divided house. The process that produced Olabamiji as the governorship candidate was faulty, as many of the bigwig aspirants were simply disqualified by the screening committee. It became a messy affair, as six of the seven aspirants who were disqualified by the Obinna Uzoh-led screening committee have consistently cautioned that the party risks defeat at the off-season governorship election except the national leadership upturned their disqualification.

Led by former National Secretary of the Party, Senator Iyiola Omisore, other contenders for the party’s primaries were Benedict Olugboyega Alabi, Senator Babajide Omoworare, Dr Akin Ogunbiyi, Kunle Rasheed Adegoke (SAN), and Babatunde Oralusi. They dismissed their disqualification as a charade. Indeed, Omisore alleged that a serving minister (Gboyega Oyetola) pressured the Uzoh panel to axe them ahead of the party’s primary, and vowed that the report would not stand. However, the panel result stood.

Although the party later set up a reconciliation talk with the aggrieved politicians, many of them remain in the party to work from inside to mar the chances of the party at the poll. Staunch supporters of Senator Omisore have left the APC for the Accord Party. Also, two former commissioners – Folorunsho Bamisayemi and Yemi Lawal, and some aides to Oyetola have also dumped the APC for the ruling Accord Party. Both Bamisayemi and Lawal are strong loyalists of Omisore. Some other influential politicians have also left the APC and pitched tents with Adeleke.

The desperation by both the APC and Accord parties to capture Osun state has since triggered a disturbing wave of violence, resulting in many deaths, with each side accusing the other of responsibility. The Osun State Police Command has also been fingered as being partisan in the entire orgy of violence that has been unleased on the state which has led to the Inspector General of Police, Tunji Disu, deploying another Commissioner of Police, Samuel Erale Etaifo, to oversee the election.

In spite of the back-and-forth from both parties, every opinion poll conducted within the past three months by all the parties contesting the election, as well as by a security agency suggest that the APC does not enjoy a comfortable lead. Some reports even claim that the party placed third in certain polls. This may explain the desperate attempt in the run-up to the election to use the EFCC to cripple the state government and weaken the Accord Party.

In fact, one of such reports written in June, by the Special Adviser on Media and Strategy to the APC National Chairman, Abimbola Tooki, when he published what he said was his assessment of the chances of his party in the gubernatorial elections in Ekiti and Osun States. He predicted that APC would win Ekiti easily (this turned out to be true), but that Osun would prove difficult for the party. Writing on how he visited Osun State and the journalist in him could not resist conducting an informal field assessment, Tooki wrote, “…rather than relying solely on elite political conversations, I sought the opinions of ordinary voters whose ballots ultimately determine electoral outcomes. Over (a) few days, I boarded more than 20 commercial motorcycles and engaged the riders in conversations about the coming election.” Then Tooki delivered his bombshell: “The responses were striking. Approximately 16 of them openly declared their intention to vote for Governor Ademola Adeleke.” If Yilwatda’s own spokesman could make such an open deduction that the incumbent would most likely win, giving good reasons, one wonders where the party’s confidence is coming from.

The President, being a pragmatic politician, must have taken note of the public outrage that greeted the freezing of the Osun state government’s accounts, as well as the results of the opinion polls. Politically, he is never attracted to a loser, no matter the filial relationship involved, and may be well disposed with working with either camp.

He must also recognise the importance of maintaining a reasonably friendly political environment in Osun state ahead of his own re-election next year. He needs every vote he can get there. A hostile Osun state does not augur well for him, especially considering the ground he has lost in the northern part of the country. These considerations may have informed his swift intervention and change of course.

In the days leading to the governorship election, security agencies may become noticeably less belligerent towards Adeleke and his bid for a second term. Tinubu personally called Adeleke on phone last week to reassure him that the EFCC’s siege on the state account would be lifted. Adeleke, even before the whole EFCC hullabaloo, had endorsed Tinubu’s re-election bid next year.

A master of the game, Tinubu may stay neutral throughout Saturday’s election and would be ready to work with whoever emerges winner of the Osun state governorship election. Wherever the pendulum swings, he will come out rosy at the end of the poll. There is also the possibility of Adeleke decamping to the APC once he gets the governorship ticket on the platform of the Accord Party.

While it is no longer debatable that the EFCC has the constitutional power to freeze the accounts of any state government under investigation, it is debatable if such an exercise could be extended to the federal government’s accounts. What President Tinubu must understand is that if this Osun election ends up with allegations of intimidation and lingering doubts about institutional neutrality, it will inevitably influence public expectations of what lies ahead of the 2027 presidential election.

See you next week.

FRSC confirms 15 dead, 25 injured in Niger road crash

WAFCON: Super Falcons lose to Cameroon 0-1

Insecurity: Police intervene in Niger drivers’ protest

Atiku: Obasanjo’s campaign of lies, political manipulation…

Italy based businessman arrested at airport excretes 98 wraps of cocaine

Banditry: Protesters block Mokwa-Bida highway

JAMB registrar resolves over 5,000 pending complaints in five days

The Sundiata Post Model (6): Institutional success and its four levels

Onaiyekan: Is Tinubu insensitive to Nigerians’ plight?

Boiling Point: Discussants debate Nigeria’s post-2027 future today

Kano pilgrims risk losing Hajj seats over passport deadline