Trump had threatened a draw down in forces earlier this week after sparring with German ‌Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who said on Monday the Iranians were humiliating the U.S. in talks to end the two-month-old war and that he did not see what exit strategy Washington was pursuing.

A senior Pentagon official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said recent German rhetoric had been “inappropriate and unhelpful.”

“The president is rightly reacting to these counterproductive remarks,” the official said.

The Pentagon said the withdrawal was expected to be completed over the next six to 12 months. Germany is home to some 35,000 active-duty U.S. military personnel, more than anywhere else in Europe.

The official said the drawdown would bring U.S. troop levels in Europe back to roughly pre-2022 levels, before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine triggered a buildup by then-President Joe Biden.

The official also cast the decision in terms of the Trump administration’s push for Europe to become the main security provider on the continent. But it is nonetheless another potent reminder of Trump’s willingness to respond to perceived disloyalty by allies.

Reuters exclusively reported last week an internal Pentagon email that outlined options to punish NATO allies that Washington believes failed to support U.S. operations in the war with Iran, including suspending Spain from NATO and reviewing the U.S. position on Britain’s claim to the Falkland Islands.

CLASHES WITH EUROPEANS

It is unclear if more withdrawals from Europe will follow.

On Thursday, Trump said “probably” when asked whether he would consider pulling U.S. troops out of Italy and Spain.

Last month, he threatened to impose a full U.S. trade embargo on Spain, where the Socialist leadership said it would not allow its bases or airspace to be used to attack Iran.

The United States has two important military bases in Spain: Naval Station Rota and Morón Air Base.

Trump has also clashed with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni over the Iran war and Trump’s criticism of Pope Leo.

The U.S. president said in April that Meloni, once a strong Trump supporter, lacked courage and had let Washington down.

Trump has chastised NATO allies, too, for not ‌sending their navies to help open the Strait of Hormuz.

The waterway, a chokepoint for global oil shipments, has remained virtually shut during the Iran conflict, causing market turmoil and unprecedented disruption in energy supplies.

“The president has been very clear about his frustrations about our allies’ rhetoric and failure to provide support for U.S. operations that benefit them,” the senior Pentagon official said.

GERMAN TIES FRAY

Merz has said Germans and Europeans were not consulted before the U.S. and Israel started attacking Iran on February 28, and that he had conveyed his scepticism about the conflict directly to Trump afterwards.

Trump has long wanted to reduce the U.S. troop presence in Germany.

He pushed for a reduction of about 12,000 troops at the end of his first term, but that cut was never enacted.

Trump lost the election and Biden reversed the plan.

Trump’s Wednesday announcement that he was reviewing U.S. troop levels in Germany surprised German military officials who spoke to Reuters, citing what they called constructive meetings at the Pentagon earlier in the day.

They argue that Germany has done more than other allies to support the U.S. war in Iran, including allowing the use of bases and giving permission for overflights.

Germany is also home to a huge military hospital in Landstuhl.

Earlier this week, the German government approved key targets for its 2027 budget, including a strong commitment to increase defense spending.

Imran Bayoumi, a former Pentagon official, said that while the cuts in Germany were not as drastic as they might have been, they nonetheless risked further dividing the United States and Europe.

“European leaders will likely push more to bolster their defense spending, viewing Washington as increasingly unreliable and untrustworthy,” said Bayoumi, now with the Atlantic Council.

As part of Trump’s withdrawal decision, a brigade combat team now in Germany will be pulled out of the country and a long-range fires battalion that the Biden administration had planned to begin deploying to Germany later this year will no longer deploy, the official said.

Source: Reuters

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The post US withdrawing 5,000 troops from Germany, US officials say appeared first on Frontpageng.

The president discussed Iran’s proposal with his top national security officials at a meeting in the White House Situation Room, said the reports.

Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, who is among those who attended the meeting said Trump was not likely to accept Iran’s proposal, which implied leaving its nuclear programme for later negotiations.

The proposal was delivered to the United States some few days ago.

He said accepting the proposal could appear to deny Trump a victory since the president had repeatedly insisted that Iran could not have nuclear weapons.

According to him, Iran’s new proposal is better than what we thought they were going to submit.

He stressed any deal must bar Tehran from developing a nuclear weapon.

Trump insisted earlier that any peace deal with Iran would be made on U.S. terms and his timeline.

The president claimed there was “no time frame” for ending the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran and “no time pressure” on either the extended ceasefire or stalled talks.

Source: Xinhua/NAN

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The post Trump not satisfied with Iran’s new peace proposal –Report appeared first on Frontpageng.

The shooting erupted just after 8:30pm, about 20 minutes after Trump and Melania made their grand entrance into the hotel’s ballroom.

Trump, first lady Melania, Vice President James Vance, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and House of Representatives Speaker Mike Johnson attended the gala.

Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt and many leaders of the Trump administration and top lawmakers also attended the dinner before they were evacuated from the ballroom by Secret Service agents.

The president is safe and there were no injuries reported.

The gunman was shot and has been detained, according to law enforcement sources.

He was intercepted at the metal detectors outside the Washington Hilton ballroom, where Trump and countless dignitaries were set to toast the Washington press corps.

Trump, while addressing reporters at the White House after he and other top leaders were evacuated said the suspect was armed with multiple weapons before he stopped by Secret Service.

He said an officer was shot but he was protected by a bulletproof vest.

“He was shot from very close distance with a very powerful gun, and the vest did the job,” Trump said.

The president had also posted to his Truth Social that the dinner will be rescheduled within 30 days,

“Law Enforcement has requested that we leave the premises, consistent with protocol, which we will do, immediately,” Trump posted after the shooting.

“The First Lady, plus the Vice President and all Cabinet members, are in perfect condition.

“We will be speaking to you in a half an hour. I have spoken with all the representatives in charge of the event, and we will be rescheduling within 30 days.”

In an earlier post, Trump praised law enforcement and Secret Service for doing a “fantastic job.”

Organizers of the star-studded gala originally said that they wanted to continue as planned but then announced that the event was cancelled by 9:45pm.

It is the first time Trump has attended the gala since 2011, marking his first appearance as president.

Before the event, pro-Palestine protesters lined the street outside the Washington Hilton, waving flags and holding signs that read “Media lies, Gaza dies” and “no war for Israel.”

Source: NAN

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The post Trump evacuated after gunfire at White House dinner appeared first on Frontpageng.

President Donald Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, and son-in-law Jared Kushner are due to depart on Saturday morning for talks with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, the White House said.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told reporters that Iran had a chance to make a “good deal” with the United States.

“Iran knows that they still have an open window to choose wisely,” ​he said. “All they have to do is abandon a nuclear weapon in meaningful and verifiable ways.”

IRAN PLANS TO MAKE AN OFFER, TRUMP SAYS

Araqchi ​arrived in the capital, Islamabad, on Friday. But an Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson posted on X that Iranian officials did ⁠not plan to meet with U.S. representatives and that Tehran’s concerns would be conveyed to mediator Pakistan.

The White House did not immediately respond to a ​request for comment on the Iranian statement.

Washington and Tehran are at a costly impasse as Iran has largely closed the Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries ​one-fifth of global oil shipments, while the U.S. blocks Iran’s oil exports.

The conflict, entering its ninth week, has pushed energy prices to multi-year highs, stoking inflation and darkening global growth prospects.

Trump told Reuters on Friday that Iran planned to make an offer aimed at satisfying U.S. demands but that he did not know what the offer entailed.

He declined ​to say who Washington was negotiating with, “but we’re dealing with the people that are in charge now”.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said the U.S. ​had seen some progress from the Iranian side in recent days and hoped more would come this weekend, while Vice President JD Vance was ready to travel to Pakistan ‌as well.

Vance, ⁠Witkoff, Kushner and Araqchi, as well as the speaker of Iran’s parliament, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, took part in inconclusive talks in Islamabad two weeks ago.

Araqchi, who posted on X that he would also be visiting Pakistan, Oman and Russia, met Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar on Friday at the Serena Hotel, where the earlier talks were held, while a U.S. logistics and security team was in place in Islamabad, Pakistani sources said.

CEASEFIRES IN PLACE, FEW SHIPS CROSSING HORMUZ

Trump unilaterally ​extended a two-week ceasefire on Tuesday ​to allow more time to reconvene ⁠the negotiators.

Oil prices surged this week, with Brent crude futures soaring 16%, on uncertainty over the fate of the peace talks and as violence flared in the region.

Shipping data on Friday showed that five ships had crossed the Strait ​of Hormuz in the previous 24 hours, compared to around 130 a day before the war that the U.S. ​and Israel launched ⁠on February 28.

The ships included an Iranian oil-products tanker but none of the vast crude-carrying supertankers that normally feed global energy markets.

On Thursday, Israel and Lebanon extended their ceasefire for three weeks at a White House meeting brokered by Trump, but there was little sign of an end to the fighting in southern Lebanon.

Israel invaded ⁠its northern ​neighbour last month to root out Iran’s Hezbollah allies after the militant group fired across ​the border.

Tehran says a ceasefire there is a precondition for talks.

Lebanese authorities reported six people were killed by an Israeli strike and Hezbollah downed an Israeli drone.

Israel’s military said it ​had killed six armed Hezbollah members in southern Lebanon.

Source: Reuters

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The post US negotiators to go to Islamabad, but Iran says no direct talks appeared first on Frontpageng.

The two-week truce in the war is ‌set to expire within days and despite Iran earlier ruling out a second round of negotiations this week, a Pakistani source involved in the discussions told Reuters there was momentum for talks to recommence on Wednesday.

“Things are moving forward and the talks are on track for tomorrow,” the source said on Tuesday on condition of anonymity, adding U.S. President Donald Trump could attend in person, or virtually, if a deal were to be signed.

U.S. Vice President JD Vance will travel to Pakistan on Tuesday for negotiations, Axios reported, citing U.S. sources and the Wall Street Journal said Iran had ​told regional mediators it would send a delegation to Pakistan on Tuesday, citing people familiar with the matter.

Reuters could not immediately confirm the reports.

An Iranian official, speaking to Reuters, said Tehran was “positively reviewing” its participation in ​the talks but stressed no decision had been made.

OIL PRICE DOWN ON TALKS OPTIMISM

Oil prices fell more than $1 and stocks bounced back in early trading in Asia on Tuesday on expectation that ⁠U.S.-Iran peace talks will resume this week, after an earlier meeting in Islamabad broke down without an agreement.

Oil prices had jumped around 6% in Monday trading on doubts over the talks.

Brent crude futures declined $1.04, or 1.1%, at $94.44 a barrel at 0600 ​GMT and U.S. West Texas Intermediate for May fell $1.66, or 1.9%, to $87.95.

But tensions remained high on Tuesday, with defiant rhetoric from Iran adding to uncertainty over whether the talks will happen.

Top officials in Tehran chided Washington over its blockade of Iranian ports and ​Sunday’s seizure and boarding of an Iranian commercial vessel, the Touska, which they called ceasefire violations that were obstacles to diplomacy.

A senior Iranian military commander said on Tuesday forces were ready to deliver an “immediate and decisive response” to any renewed hostility from adversaries, the semi-official Tasnim news agency said, while Iran’s ambassador to Pakistan, Reza Amiri Moghadam, in an X post said any nation with a great civilisation would not negotiate under threat or force.

Top negotiator Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf had in an X post late on Monday accused Trump of increasing pressure through the blockade, saying ​he was deluded in seeking to “turn the negotiating table into a table of submission” or justify renewed warmongering.

Trump wants an agreement that would prevent further oil price rises and stock market shocks but has insisted Iran cannot have the means to develop ​a nuclear weapon.

Tehran hopes to leverage its control of the Strait of Hormuz to strike a deal that averts a restart of the war, eases sanctions but does not impede its nuclear programme.

Washington has not specified when the two-week ceasefire will end.

A Pakistani source ‌involved in the ⁠talks said it would expire at 8 p.m. Eastern Time on Wednesday, or midnight GMT or 3:30 a.m. Thursday in Iran.

IRAN DEMANDS RELEASE OF VESSEL, CREW

Maritime security sources said on Monday the Iranian vessel Touska was likely to have what Washington deems dual-use items that could be used by the military onboard.

The U.S. Central Command said the crew failed to comply, opens new tab with repeated warnings over a six-hour period and the vessel violated the U.S. blockade.

China, the main buyer of Iranian crude, has expressed concern over the “forced interception”.

Iran’s foreign ministry condemned the seizure on Tuesday and demanded the immediate release of the vessel, its crew and their families, warning Tehran would use all its capabilities to defend its national interests and security.

“The United States would bear full responsibility for any ​further escalation in the region,” it said, according to Iranian ​state media.

Thousands of people have been killed by U.S.-Israeli ⁠strikes on Iran and in an Israeli invasion of Lebanon conducted in parallel since the war began on February 28.

The war triggered a historic shock to global energy supplies and fears that prolonged conflict could push the global economy to the brink of recession.

The U.S. blockade of Iranian ports has infuriated Tehran, which lifted and then soon re-imposed its own restrictions on the ​Strait of Hormuz, which typically handles roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas supply.

Mediator Pakistan has lobbied for Washington to end its blockade.

‘THEY’RE GOING TO NEGOTIATE,’ ​TRUMP SAYS

Trump on the John Fredericks ⁠Media Network on Monday said Iran would negotiate but reiterated Washington would not allow Tehran to develop a nuclear weapon.

“They’re going to negotiate, and hopefully they’ll make a fair deal, and they’ll build their country back up, but they will not have – when they do it – they will not have a nuclear weapon,” Trump said.

Pakistan has been preparing to host the talks despite uncertainty about whether they would go ahead.

Nearly 20,000 security personnel have been deployed across Islamabad, officials said.

Trump warned on Sunday that the U.S. would destroy every ⁠bridge and power ​plant in Iran if it rejected his terms, continuing a recent pattern of such threats.

Iran has said that if the United States were to attack ​its civilian infrastructure, it would strike power stations and desalination plants in its Gulf Arab neighbours.

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said on Fox News’ “Hannity” programme that the United States was close to a deal with Iran.

“Thanks to the success of the military operation and his (Trump’s) hardline negotiating style, we’re on ​the brink of a deal,” Leavitt said.

“And if not, the president, as commander in chief, still has a number of options at his disposal that he’s unafraid to use.”

Source: Reuters

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The post US positive on Iran deal but talks still uncertain appeared first on Frontpageng.

Trump said the next meeting between the United States and Iran could take place at the weekend and an extension of a two-week ceasefire was possible, but may not be needed as Tehran wanted ‌a deal.

“We’re going to see what happens. But I think we’re very close to making a deal with Iran,” he told reporters outside the White House, adding if an agreement was reached and signed in the Pakistani capital Islamabad, he may go there for the occasion.

Hours later while in Las Vegas, Trump went further, saying the war “should be ending pretty soon”.

The war with Iran has been unpopular in the United States and has left Trump with a political headache just months before a crucial midterm election at home.

The U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran that started on February 28 has triggered the worst oil price shock in history and led to ​an International Monetary Fund downgrade of its outlook for the global economy and a warning that prolonged conflict could push the world to the brink of recession.

A Pakistani source involved in mediating between the U.S. and Iran said on Friday there was ​progress in backdoor diplomacy and that an upcoming meeting between the two sides could result in the signing of an agreement.

The two sides would first sign a memorandum of understanding followed by a ⁠comprehensive agreement within 60 days, the source said.

“Detailed agreement comes later. Both sides are agreeing in principle. And technical bits come later,” the source said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

A diplomatic source said the key Pakistani mediator, army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir, had been ​holding talks in Tehran since Wednesday and had made a breakthrough on “sticky issues”.

OIL PRICE FALLS ON DEAL HOPES

Oil prices fell in early trade on Friday and Asian stocks headed for a second week of strong gains on optimism the Middle East conflict could be nearing an end, even ​though the critical Strait of Hormuz, an artery for a fifth of the world’s oil and gas supply, remains effectively closed.

The MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS), opens new tab was down 0.8% as investors locked in profits after a blistering rally this month, with the index close to its highest since the Iran war broke out.

Japan’s Nikkei (.N225), opens new tab slipped 1% after hitting a record high on Thursday and almost all stock markets were back to pre-war levels.

Brent crude futures declined to $98.17 a barrel at 0434 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell to $93.47 a barrel, trimming gains from the previous session.

France and Britain will chair ​a meeting on Friday of around 40 countries aimed at signalling to the United States that some of its closest allies, many chided by Trump for failing to act, are ready to help restore freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz once conditions allow.

Iran has largely ​closed the strait to ships other than its own and Washington this week imposed a blockade on ships entering or leaving Iranian ports.

Analysts said the blockade could prevent roughly 2 million barrels per day of Iranian crude from reaching its primary buyer China.

Only a trickle of vessels have passed through ‌the strait since the ⁠war started, compared to an average 130-plus each day before the conflict.

A map showing the inbound and outbound shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz, in addition to the maritime boundary between Oman and Iran.

HOPES FOR ‘MEANINGFUL TALKS’

The ceasefire in Lebanon went into effect on Thursday and Trump said he had spoken to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Lebanese counterpart Joseph Aoun and planned to invite them to the White House for “meaningful talks” that could happen over the next week or two.

Iran has insisted that any peace deal should also cover the fighting in Lebanon.

The ceasefire was part of an understanding reached with the U.S. and mediated by Pakistan, Iranian media reported, citing a foreign ministry spokesperson.

“May have been a historic day for Lebanon. Good things are happening!!!” Trump said on social media late on Thursday.

In an earlier post, he urged Hezbollah to respect the ceasefire.

“I hope Hezbollah acts nicely and well during this important period of time. It will be an ​GREAT moment for them if they do. No more killing. Must ​finally have PEACE!” he said.

Conflict between Israel and the Iran-backed ⁠Hezbollah in Lebanon was reignited by the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran.

Hezbollah opened fire in support of Tehran on March 2, prompting an Israeli offensive in Lebanon that authorities say has killed 2,000 people, 15 months after their last major conflict.

Celebratory gunfire rang out across parts of Beirut as the clock struck midnight on Thursday to mark the start of the truce and witnesses heard explosions from rockets fired in ​celebration, prompting a safety warning and threat of arrests from the Lebanese Army.

But the pause in hostilities remained fragile, with the army early on Friday reporting that Israel had already violated the ceasefire ​with intermittent shelling of several southern ⁠Lebanese villages.

There was no immediate comment from the Israeli military, which had said earlier that its forces remained deployed in the area, in what a spokesperson said was in response to continued Hezbollah militant activity.

Hezbollah released a lengthy statement on its military operations against Israel throughout Thursday, which listed its last attack as being 10 minutes before the ceasefire took effect.

The truce was “essential, urgently needed and a demand shared by all,” senior Hezbollah official Bilal Lakkiss told NBC News ahead of the start of the ceasefire, but said the group would not comply with Israel’s demand that it ⁠disarm “except within a framework ​tied to a broader national security vision”.

NUCLEAR AMBITIONS A STICKING POINT

Tehran’s nuclear ambitions were a sticking point at talks in Islamabad last weekend, where the U.S. proposed ​a 20-year suspension of all nuclear activity by Iran.

Tehran suggested a halt of three to five years, according to people familiar with the proposals.

Trump on Thursday said Iran had offered not to possess nuclear weapons for more than 20 years.

Iran has demanded that international sanctions be lifted and Washington has pressed for any highly enriched ​uranium to be removed from Iran.

Two Iranian sources said there were signs of a compromise on the HEU stockpile, with Tehran considering shipping part of it out of the country.

Source: Reuters

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Prussian war strategist, Carl von Clausewitz, defines war as the continuation of politics by other means. In other words, when diplomacy fails, nations resort to war to achieve the same objectives they had set out to achieve with diplomacy. Thus, war is not an end in itself but a means to an end. And like Niccolo Machiavelli posits in his political treatise, The Prince, the end justifies the means. Once the end or objective is achieved, then, the loss, destruction, dislocation, and terrible suffering that war brings become justified.

Three quick take-aways from Clausewitz’s treatise are that war is a very serious business which is not levied for flimsy reasons. Two: War is the last resort after and only after diplomacy has failed. Three: What determines the success of war is, if the same set goals or objectives which diplomacy had failed to achieve are now achieved by war. It is then that the efforts invested in the war by the protagonist(s) will be worth the while.

The loser also learns the useful lesson of the need to bend over backward at the point of diplomacy to avoid war; for, why be intransigent at negotiations only to eventually lose everything and accept the same or even more crippling conditions than those hitherto rejected? The examples of the powers that lost out in the 1st and 2nd World Wars and the crippling conditions imposed on them after the loss bears repeating here.

To what extent does Clausewitz’s treatise apply to the just-concluded tripartite war (with proxies throwing in jabs from the sidelines!) between the United States of America, the State of Israel and the Islamic Republic of Iran? In war, says the ancient Greek tragic dramatist, Aeschylus, the first casualty is truth; meaning that truth is not only deliberately concealed but its concealment is elevated to the high art of state policy, with vicious penalties for dissenters.

Honest reporting of events is not only forbidden but is also treated as crime committed against the State, its national interests, and survival. Death penalty for offenders has often and routinely been resorted to, especially by totalitarian or dictatorial regimes. Thus, propaganda, misinformation, disinformation and the brazen distortion of facts become official state policy. The media is heavily censored. Even in so-called democracies, rulers acquire emergency powers which enable them to suppress fundamental human rights and ride roughshod over the will of the same people they claim to represent.

The US-Israel-Iran war was not different. A lot happened which were not only shielded from the public but were also disfigured and distorted. Therefore, our knowledge of what happened pre-war, during the war and after it is limited to what we were allowed to know.

We heard that the US and Iran had started negotiations and were just a few hours away from reaching an agreement when the US made a volte-face and, jointly with Israel, launched a barrage of missiles on the Islamic republic. The US and Israel were the first to attack; under international law and conventions, they were the aggressors. When Iran responded in kind, it acted legitimately in self defence, which is permitted under international law and conventions.

As Iran and the US return to the negotiation table in Pakistan, what ails the entire world is no longer the exchange of missiles by the combatants but Iran’s effective closure and control of the Strait of Hormuz, which the US appears to have tacitly acquiesce to with Trump’s diplomatic language of referring to the strait as “joint venture” between the US and Iran!

Why did the US and Israel attack when negotiations were not only ongoing but were said to be proceeding smoothly and a positive end was in sight? One argument is that neither the US nor Israel trusted the Iranians to honour any agreement reached. In other words, they saw Iran as merely playing games to ward off an attack, after which it would go back on whatever agreement was reached by the parties.

A counter argument, however, is that both the US and Israel had made up their mind a long time ago and were fixated on the attack, come what may. They had prepared and were armed to the teeth. But Iran chose to take the wind off the sail of its opponents by cooperating during negotiations, to the chagrin, embarrassment and frustration of both the US and Israel. To allow negotiations to proceed and conclude on a positive note would further make the preconceived positions of the US and Israel more untenable.

Clausewitz’s treatise that war is launched only after diplomacy has failed thus fell flat on its face. Not only has diplomacy not failed here, it was, in fact, succeeding when the US and Israel aborted it and levied war on Iran.

Now, what were the publicly-stated goals or objectives (apart from hidden goals) that the US and Israel sought to achieve with their attack on Iran? One is not just to disrupt or postpone but to completely destroy Iran’s nuclear programme. The US and Israel accuse Iran of seeking to produce nuclear weapons; Iran denies this, stating that its nuclear programme is for peaceful means. The US and Israel, which are both nuclear powers,  disbelieve this.

Iran has refused to recognize the State of Israel, unlike some other Arab and Middle East countries. The fear of Israel is that Iran’s nuclear weapons programme is an existential threat while the US reasons that a nuclear-power Iran will distort and disrupt the balance of power equations it has adroitly erected and gingerly maintained in the region for its own continued hegemony.

Another reason not officially stated is that the US eyes Iran’s vast oil resources. After the success of its Venezuelan invasion, the argument in some American quarters is that if the US could also “capture” Iran, it would automatically control over 30 per cent of the entire world’s oil reserves. Not only that, with Iran beholden to both Russia and China, which are superpower rivals of the US, dragging Iran into the US orbit would be a huge blow on both China and Russia, which will not only deny them access to Iran’s vital resources but will, after the loss of Venezuela, also mean the loss of another strategic ally.

Thus, regime change in Iran became a very key component of the US agenda. Iran would be attacked; its leadership would be exterminated, a mass uprising against whatever remains of the Islamic regime will unfold and the US will move in not only to install a pliant regime beholden to the US but also one that is permanently crippled and would be unable to pose an existential threat to Israel or any of it neighbours that operate within the US orbit.

The above are goals, stated and unstated, that the US and Israel must have reckoned could not be totally achieved through diplomacy. Only a decimated and conquered Iran will afford them the opportunity to ride roughshod over the Islamic Republic; hence war.

Now, how far have the US and Israel achieved their goals? From video and other pictorial evidence, both the US and Israel substantially destroyed Iranian military and civilian facilities. They virtually wiped out the Iranian leadership, including its leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei; so also were scores of its military officers and top scientists, as well as thousands of other Iranian citizens, hundreds of them being school children.

But whereas Khamenei was killed and regime change effected, it was not along the line envisaged by the US. Khamenei has been succeeded by his son. The Iranian regime remains fully in charge of the country. The public uproar expected from the Iranian population has failed to materialize; instead, the war appears to have solidified majority of Iranians behind their leaders, who were now afforded the opportunity to bear down heavily on dissenters.

The US claimed to have destroyed Iran’s nuclear capability, but it turned out it has only buried the enriched uranium fuselages and will now need to put thousand of boots on ground in Iran to get to where those fuselages are buried deep under the ground, excavate and ship them to the US. What a tall order! The US also claims to have decapitated Iran’s military, yet the same Iran was able to attack locations within Israel, inflicting damages that the media was not allowed to fully report, as well as attacking US military bases and allies in the region.

But, perhaps, the most intriguing aspect is the US report that it has destroyed the Iranian navy; that it no longer possesses the capability to threaten, adding that the US would keep the Strait of Hormuz safe for ships to pass through and ensure that 20 per cent of the world’s crude oil and gas trade that pass through the strait would go on uninterrupted. Not only is Iran still strong enough to close the strait; not only has the US been unable to stop it from doing so; the US’s NATO allies have also declined President Donald Trump’s call for help!

As Iran and the US return to the negotiation table in Pakistan, what ails the entire world is no longer the exchange of missiles by the combatants but Iran’s effective closure and control of the Strait of Hormuz, which the US appears to have tacitly acquiesce to with Trump’s diplomatic language of referring to the strait as “joint venture” between the US and Iran! What does that mean – defeat, acquiesce or what? Did the US and Israel achieve the goals for which they levied war on Iran or did they only succeed in opening Pandora’s box?

*Bolawole (turnpot@gmail.com 0807 552 5533), former Editor of PUNCH newspapers, Chairman of its Editorial Board and Deputy Editor-in-chief, was also the Managing Director/ Editor-in-chief of the Westerner newsmagazine. He writes the “ON THE LORD’S DAY” column in the Sunday Tribune and “TREASURES” column in the New Telegraph newspapers. He is also a public affairs analyst on radio and television.

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The post US-Israel-Iran: Who won and who lost the war? appeared first on Frontpageng.

While the U.S. blockade drew angry rhetoric from Tehran, signs that diplomatic engagement might ‌continue helped calm oil markets, pushing benchmark prices below $100 on Tuesday.

The highest-level talks between the two adversaries since the 1979 Islamic Revolution ended in the Pakistani capital without a breakthrough at the weekend, raising doubts over the survival of a two-week ceasefire that still has a week to run.

However, a source involved in the talks said on Tuesday both countries could return as early as the end of this week, and that a proposal had been shared with Washington and Tehran to resend their delegations.

“No firm date has been set, with the delegations ​keeping Friday through Sunday open,” a senior Iranian source said.

U.S. President Donald Trump said Iran had been in touch on Monday and wanted to make a deal, adding that he would not sanction any agreement ​that allowed Tehran to possess a nuclear weapon.

Since the United States and Israel began the war on February 28, Iran effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz to nearly ⁠all vessels except its own, saying passage would be permitted only under Iranian control and subject to a fee.

Nearly a fifth of global oil and gas supplies previously flowed through the narrow waterway, making the fallout widespread.

In ​a countermeasure, the U.S. military said it began blocking shipping traffic in and out of Iran’s ports on Monday.

Tehran has threatened to hit naval ships going through the strait and to retaliate against its Gulf neighbours’ ports.

A day ​into the U.S. blockade, there had yet to be reports of Washington taking direct action against shipping to enforce it.

Shipping data showed at least three Iran-linked tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz that were not heading to or from Iranian ports.

IMF CUTS GROWTH OUTLOOK

The latest measures have further clouded the outlook for global energy security and the supply of goods that rely on petroleum.

On Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund cut its growth outlook, citing price spikes and supply disruptions driven by the war, and said the global economy would teeter on ​the brink of recession if the conflict worsens and oil stays above $100 per barrel through 2027.

The International Energy Agency sharply cut its forecasts for global oil supply and demand growth, saying both are now expected to fall from 2025 ​levels.

The United States’ NATO allies including Britain and France said they would not be drawn into the conflict by taking part in the blockade, although they have offered to help safeguard the strait by drawing together a defensive multilateral mission to assist when an ‌agreement is in ⁠place.

China, the main buyer of Iranian oil, said the U.S. blockade was “dangerous and irresponsible” and would only aggravate tensions.

NUCLEAR DEMANDS REMAIN FIRM

U.S. Vice President JD Vance, who led Washington’s delegation opposite Iranian parliamentary speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, said on Monday that Iranian negotiators had shown some movement but fell short.

He said Trump was adamant that any enriched nuclear material must be removed from Iran and a mechanism must be established to verify that Iran is not developing nuclear weapons.

Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar echoed that position on Tuesday, speaking to reporters in Jerusalem: “We will never allow Iran to obtain nuclear weapons,” he said. “The enriched materials must be removed from Iran.”

Complicating Pakistan’s efforts to mediate an end to the ​war, Israel has continued targeting Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon.

​Israel and the United States say that campaign ⁠is not covered by the ceasefire, while Iran has insisted it is.

Israeli and Lebanese envoys were to meet in Washington on Tuesday in a rare encounter also expected to be attended by Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

Lebanon’s government has sought negotiations with Israel despite objections from Hezbollah.

Israel killed more than 350 people in Lebanon in the war’s worst strikes ​hours after the Iran ceasefire was announced last week, but later said it was willing to discuss a separate ceasefire with the Lebanese government.

CEASEFIRE STILL HOLDING

With the war ​unpopular at home and rising ⁠energy prices causing political blowback, Trump paused the U.S.-Israeli bombing campaign last week after threatening to destroy Iran’s “whole civilisation” unless it reopened the strait.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted April 10-12, after the ceasefire was announced, showed that 35% of Americans approve of U.S. strikes against Iran, down from 37% a week earlier.

The ceasefire has largely held over its first week despite sharp rhetoric from both sides.

An Iranian military spokesperson called any U.S. restrictions on international shipping “piracy,” warning that if Iranian ports were threatened, ⁠no port in ​the Gulf or Gulf of Oman would be secure.

Trump said Iran’s navy had been “completely obliterated” during the war, adding that only a small ​number of “fast-attack ships” remained.

“Warning: If any of these ships come anywhere close to our BLOCKADE, they will be immediately ELIMINATED,” Trump wrote on social media.

The U.S. military’s Central Command said the blockade would be enforced on vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports in the Gulf and Gulf of ​Oman.

It would not impede neutral transit passage through the Strait of Hormuz to or from non-Iranian destinations, it said in a note to seafarers.

Source: Reuters

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Trump also said in a post on Truth Social that the U.S. would take action against every vessel in international waters that had paid a toll to Iran, and begin destroying mines that he said the Iranians had dropped in the strait, a choke point for about 20% of global energy supplies that Iran has blocked.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards responded with a statement warning that military vessels approaching the strait will ​be considered a ceasefire breach and dealt with harshly and decisively, underlining the risk of a dangerous escalation.

“Effective immediately, the United States Navy, the Finest in the World, will ​begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz,” Trump said in his Truth Social ⁠post.

“I have also instructed our Navy to seek and interdict every vessel in International Waters that has paid a toll to Iran. No one who pays an illegal toll will have safe ​passage on the high seas,” Trump added.

“Any Iranian who fires at us, or at peaceful vessels, will be BLOWN TO HELL!” he added.

Six weeks of fighting has killed thousands, roiled the global economy and sent ​oil prices soaring as Iran prevented traffic through the strait.

MORE NEGOTIATIONS?

In an interview with Fox News after his post about the strait, Trump said that he believed Iran would continue to negotiate and called the weekend discussions “very friendly”.

“I do believe they’re going to come to the table on this, because nobody can be so stupid as to say, ‘We want nuclear weapons,’ and they have no cards,” Trump told Fox News from his golf course ​near Miami, Florida.

Trump also said that NATO allies, whom he has criticised for failing to back the war he launched along with Israel on February 28, wanted to help with the operation ​in the strait.

There was no immediate comment from Washington’s allies.

The weekend talks in Islamabad, which followed the announcement of a ceasefire last Tuesday, were the first direct U.S.-Iranian meeting in more than a decade and the ‌highest-level discussions ⁠since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

“The bad news is that we have not reached an agreement, and I think that’s bad news for Iran much more than it’s bad news for the United States of America,” said Vice President JD Vance, who headed the U.S. delegation.

A U.S. official said Iran had rejected Washington’s call for an end to all uranium enrichment, the dismantling of all major enrichment facilities and the transfer of highly enriched uranium.

The two sides also failed to reach agreement on the U.S. demand that Iran cease funding for Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis as well as fully ​open the strait, the official added.

Iran’s Parliamentary Speaker ​Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, who led his country’s ⁠delegation along with Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, blamed the U.S. for not winning Tehran’s trust, despite his team offering “forward-looking initiatives”.

Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian, who discussed the talks in a call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, said Tehran wanted “a balanced and fair agreement”.

“If the United States returns to the framework ​of international law, reaching an agreement is not far off,” he told Putin, Iranian state media reported.

ISRAEL CONTINUES BOMBING LEBANON

Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news ​agency said “excessive” U.S. demands had ⁠hindered reaching a deal.

Other Iranian media said there was agreement on a number of issues, but the strait and Iran’s nuclear programme were the main sticking points.

Despite the stalemate, three supertankers fully laden with oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, shipping data showed, in what appeared to be the first vessels to exit the Gulf since the ceasefire deal.

Israel has continued bombing Tehran-backed Hezbollah militants in ⁠Lebanon, insisting – ​along with Washington – that that conflict was not part of the Iran-U.S. ceasefire.

Iran says the fighting in Lebanon must ​stop.

The Israeli military said it struck Hezbollah rocket launchers overnight into Sunday and black smoke could be seen rising in the southern suburbs of the Lebanese capital Beirut.

And in Israeli villages near the border, air raid sirens sounded, warning of ​incoming rocket fire from Lebanon.

Source: Reuters

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The U.S. delegation, led ​by Vice President JD Vance and including President Donald Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner, landed in two U.S. air force planes at an air base in Islamabad on Saturday morning, where ‌they were received by Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar.

The Iranian delegation, led by parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, arrived on Friday.

These will be the highest-level U.S.-Iran talks since the Islamic Revolution of 1979 and the first official face-to-face negotiations between the two sides since 2015, when they reached a deal on Iran’s nuclear programme.

Trump scrapped the nuclear deal in 2018 during his first term in office.

That year, Iran’s then-Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei – who was killed at the start of the war six weeks ago – banned ​further direct talks between U.S. and Iranian officials.

IRAN HAS ‘NO CARDS’, TRUMP SAYS

Qalibaf said on X that Washington had previously agreed to unblock Iranian assets and to a ceasefire in Lebanon, where Israeli attacks on Iran-backed Hezbollah militants have ​killed nearly 2,000 people since the start of the fighting in March.

He said talks would not start until those pledges were fulfilled.

Iran’s state broadcaster said the Iranian delegation would meet Pakistani ⁠Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif around noon (0700 GMT) to determine the timing and manner of “possible negotiations”.

Israel and the U.S. have said the Lebanon campaign is not part of the Iran-U.S. ceasefire, while Tehran insists it is.

Qalibaf said separately that Iran was ready to reach ​a deal if Washington offered what he described as a genuine agreement and granted Iran its rights, Iranian state media reported.

The White House did not immediately comment on the Iranian demands, but Trump posted on social media that the only reason the Iranians ​were alive was to negotiate a deal.

“The Iranians don’t seem to realize they have no cards, other than a short term extortion of the World by using International Waterways. The only reason they are alive today is to negotiate!” he said.

Vance, speaking as he headed to Pakistan, said he expected a positive outcome but added: “If they’re going to try to play us, then they’re going to find the negotiating team is not that receptive.”

Preliminary discussions have been separately held by Pakistani officials with advance teams from both sides, sources in Islamabad said.

Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency said these ​included 70 members from Tehran, including technical specialists in economic, security and political fields as well as media personnel and support staff.

About 100 members of an advance U.S. team were in the city, a Pakistani government source said.

“We’re very positive,” said another ​Pakistani source close to the discussions.

Asked if talks would end on Saturday, the source said: “Too early to say. They have instructions to close a deal or walk away. Hence not in a rush. These talks are not on the clock.”

Islamabad was under an unprecedented lockdown ahead ‌of the talks ⁠with thousands of paramilitary personnel and army troops on the streets.

“We have deployed multi-layer security for this event, which is based on coordination, intelligence and constant monitoring for zero disruption and full control,” Pakistan’s junior interior minister, Talal Chaudhry, told Reuters.

Trump announced a two-week ceasefire in the war on Tuesday, which has halted U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iran.

But it has not ended Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which has caused the biggest-ever disruption to global energy supplies, or calmed the parallel war between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon.

FIGHTING CONTINUES IN LEBANON

Israeli and Lebanese officials will hold talks in Washington on Tuesday, both sides said, amid conflicting accounts on what those talks would cover.

Lebanon’s presidency said officials from the two countries had held a phone call on ​Friday and agreed to discuss announcing a ceasefire and setting ​a start date for bilateral talks under U.S. mediation.

⁠But Israel’s embassy in Washington said the talks would constitute the start of “formal peace negotiations” and that Israel had refused to discuss a ceasefire with Hezbollah.

Tehran’s agenda at the Islamabad talks also includes demands for major new concessions, including the end of sanctions that crippled its economy for years, and acknowledgment of its authority over the Strait of Hormuz, where it aims to collect ​transit fees and control access in what would amount to a huge shift in regional power.

Iran’s ships were sailing through the strait unimpeded on Friday, while those of other countries ​remained hemmed inside.

Disruption to energy supplies ⁠has fed inflation and slowed the global economy, with an impact expected to last for months even if negotiators succeed in reopening the strait.

The hard line taken by Iran’s leaders ahead of the negotiations followed a defiant message from its new Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei on Thursday.

Khamenei, yet to be seen in public and said to be suffering from severe facial and leg injuries sustained in the attack that killed his father, said Iran would demand compensation for all wartime damage.

“We will certainly not leave unpunished the criminal aggressors who attacked ⁠our country,” he ​said.

Although Trump has declared victory and degraded Iran’s military capabilities, the war has not achieved many of the aims he set out at the start: to ​deprive Iran of the ability to strike its neighbours, dismantle its nuclear programme, and make it easier for its people to overthrow their government.

Iran still possesses missiles and drones capable of hitting its neighbours and a stockpile of more than 400 kg (900 pounds) of uranium enriched near the level needed to make ​a bomb.

Its clerical rulers, who faced a popular uprising just months ago, withstood the war with no sign of organised opposition.

Source: Reuters

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