Trump said the next meeting between the United States and Iran could take place at the weekend and an extension of a two-week ceasefire was possible, but may not be needed as Tehran wanted ‌a deal.

“We’re going to see what happens. But I think we’re very close to making a deal with Iran,” he told reporters outside the White House, adding if an agreement was reached and signed in the Pakistani capital Islamabad, he may go there for the occasion.

Hours later while in Las Vegas, Trump went further, saying the war “should be ending pretty soon”.

The war with Iran has been unpopular in the United States and has left Trump with a political headache just months before a crucial midterm election at home.

The U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran that started on February 28 has triggered the worst oil price shock in history and led to ​an International Monetary Fund downgrade of its outlook for the global economy and a warning that prolonged conflict could push the world to the brink of recession.

A Pakistani source involved in mediating between the U.S. and Iran said on Friday there was ​progress in backdoor diplomacy and that an upcoming meeting between the two sides could result in the signing of an agreement.

The two sides would first sign a memorandum of understanding followed by a ⁠comprehensive agreement within 60 days, the source said.

“Detailed agreement comes later. Both sides are agreeing in principle. And technical bits come later,” the source said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

A diplomatic source said the key Pakistani mediator, army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir, had been ​holding talks in Tehran since Wednesday and had made a breakthrough on “sticky issues”.

OIL PRICE FALLS ON DEAL HOPES

Oil prices fell in early trade on Friday and Asian stocks headed for a second week of strong gains on optimism the Middle East conflict could be nearing an end, even ​though the critical Strait of Hormuz, an artery for a fifth of the world’s oil and gas supply, remains effectively closed.

The MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS), opens new tab was down 0.8% as investors locked in profits after a blistering rally this month, with the index close to its highest since the Iran war broke out.

Japan’s Nikkei (.N225), opens new tab slipped 1% after hitting a record high on Thursday and almost all stock markets were back to pre-war levels.

Brent crude futures declined to $98.17 a barrel at 0434 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell to $93.47 a barrel, trimming gains from the previous session.

France and Britain will chair ​a meeting on Friday of around 40 countries aimed at signalling to the United States that some of its closest allies, many chided by Trump for failing to act, are ready to help restore freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz once conditions allow.

Iran has largely ​closed the strait to ships other than its own and Washington this week imposed a blockade on ships entering or leaving Iranian ports.

Analysts said the blockade could prevent roughly 2 million barrels per day of Iranian crude from reaching its primary buyer China.

Only a trickle of vessels have passed through ‌the strait since the ⁠war started, compared to an average 130-plus each day before the conflict.

A map showing the inbound and outbound shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz, in addition to the maritime boundary between Oman and Iran.

HOPES FOR ‘MEANINGFUL TALKS’

The ceasefire in Lebanon went into effect on Thursday and Trump said he had spoken to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Lebanese counterpart Joseph Aoun and planned to invite them to the White House for “meaningful talks” that could happen over the next week or two.

Iran has insisted that any peace deal should also cover the fighting in Lebanon.

The ceasefire was part of an understanding reached with the U.S. and mediated by Pakistan, Iranian media reported, citing a foreign ministry spokesperson.

“May have been a historic day for Lebanon. Good things are happening!!!” Trump said on social media late on Thursday.

In an earlier post, he urged Hezbollah to respect the ceasefire.

“I hope Hezbollah acts nicely and well during this important period of time. It will be an ​GREAT moment for them if they do. No more killing. Must ​finally have PEACE!” he said.

Conflict between Israel and the Iran-backed ⁠Hezbollah in Lebanon was reignited by the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran.

Hezbollah opened fire in support of Tehran on March 2, prompting an Israeli offensive in Lebanon that authorities say has killed 2,000 people, 15 months after their last major conflict.

Celebratory gunfire rang out across parts of Beirut as the clock struck midnight on Thursday to mark the start of the truce and witnesses heard explosions from rockets fired in ​celebration, prompting a safety warning and threat of arrests from the Lebanese Army.

But the pause in hostilities remained fragile, with the army early on Friday reporting that Israel had already violated the ceasefire ​with intermittent shelling of several southern ⁠Lebanese villages.

There was no immediate comment from the Israeli military, which had said earlier that its forces remained deployed in the area, in what a spokesperson said was in response to continued Hezbollah militant activity.

Hezbollah released a lengthy statement on its military operations against Israel throughout Thursday, which listed its last attack as being 10 minutes before the ceasefire took effect.

The truce was “essential, urgently needed and a demand shared by all,” senior Hezbollah official Bilal Lakkiss told NBC News ahead of the start of the ceasefire, but said the group would not comply with Israel’s demand that it ⁠disarm “except within a framework ​tied to a broader national security vision”.

NUCLEAR AMBITIONS A STICKING POINT

Tehran’s nuclear ambitions were a sticking point at talks in Islamabad last weekend, where the U.S. proposed ​a 20-year suspension of all nuclear activity by Iran.

Tehran suggested a halt of three to five years, according to people familiar with the proposals.

Trump on Thursday said Iran had offered not to possess nuclear weapons for more than 20 years.

Iran has demanded that international sanctions be lifted and Washington has pressed for any highly enriched ​uranium to be removed from Iran.

Two Iranian sources said there were signs of a compromise on the HEU stockpile, with Tehran considering shipping part of it out of the country.

Source: Reuters

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Prussian war strategist, Carl von Clausewitz, defines war as the continuation of politics by other means. In other words, when diplomacy fails, nations resort to war to achieve the same objectives they had set out to achieve with diplomacy. Thus, war is not an end in itself but a means to an end. And like Niccolo Machiavelli posits in his political treatise, The Prince, the end justifies the means. Once the end or objective is achieved, then, the loss, destruction, dislocation, and terrible suffering that war brings become justified.

Three quick take-aways from Clausewitz’s treatise are that war is a very serious business which is not levied for flimsy reasons. Two: War is the last resort after and only after diplomacy has failed. Three: What determines the success of war is, if the same set goals or objectives which diplomacy had failed to achieve are now achieved by war. It is then that the efforts invested in the war by the protagonist(s) will be worth the while.

The loser also learns the useful lesson of the need to bend over backward at the point of diplomacy to avoid war; for, why be intransigent at negotiations only to eventually lose everything and accept the same or even more crippling conditions than those hitherto rejected? The examples of the powers that lost out in the 1st and 2nd World Wars and the crippling conditions imposed on them after the loss bears repeating here.

To what extent does Clausewitz’s treatise apply to the just-concluded tripartite war (with proxies throwing in jabs from the sidelines!) between the United States of America, the State of Israel and the Islamic Republic of Iran? In war, says the ancient Greek tragic dramatist, Aeschylus, the first casualty is truth; meaning that truth is not only deliberately concealed but its concealment is elevated to the high art of state policy, with vicious penalties for dissenters.

Honest reporting of events is not only forbidden but is also treated as crime committed against the State, its national interests, and survival. Death penalty for offenders has often and routinely been resorted to, especially by totalitarian or dictatorial regimes. Thus, propaganda, misinformation, disinformation and the brazen distortion of facts become official state policy. The media is heavily censored. Even in so-called democracies, rulers acquire emergency powers which enable them to suppress fundamental human rights and ride roughshod over the will of the same people they claim to represent.

The US-Israel-Iran war was not different. A lot happened which were not only shielded from the public but were also disfigured and distorted. Therefore, our knowledge of what happened pre-war, during the war and after it is limited to what we were allowed to know.

We heard that the US and Iran had started negotiations and were just a few hours away from reaching an agreement when the US made a volte-face and, jointly with Israel, launched a barrage of missiles on the Islamic republic. The US and Israel were the first to attack; under international law and conventions, they were the aggressors. When Iran responded in kind, it acted legitimately in self defence, which is permitted under international law and conventions.

As Iran and the US return to the negotiation table in Pakistan, what ails the entire world is no longer the exchange of missiles by the combatants but Iran’s effective closure and control of the Strait of Hormuz, which the US appears to have tacitly acquiesce to with Trump’s diplomatic language of referring to the strait as “joint venture” between the US and Iran!

Why did the US and Israel attack when negotiations were not only ongoing but were said to be proceeding smoothly and a positive end was in sight? One argument is that neither the US nor Israel trusted the Iranians to honour any agreement reached. In other words, they saw Iran as merely playing games to ward off an attack, after which it would go back on whatever agreement was reached by the parties.

A counter argument, however, is that both the US and Israel had made up their mind a long time ago and were fixated on the attack, come what may. They had prepared and were armed to the teeth. But Iran chose to take the wind off the sail of its opponents by cooperating during negotiations, to the chagrin, embarrassment and frustration of both the US and Israel. To allow negotiations to proceed and conclude on a positive note would further make the preconceived positions of the US and Israel more untenable.

Clausewitz’s treatise that war is launched only after diplomacy has failed thus fell flat on its face. Not only has diplomacy not failed here, it was, in fact, succeeding when the US and Israel aborted it and levied war on Iran.

Now, what were the publicly-stated goals or objectives (apart from hidden goals) that the US and Israel sought to achieve with their attack on Iran? One is not just to disrupt or postpone but to completely destroy Iran’s nuclear programme. The US and Israel accuse Iran of seeking to produce nuclear weapons; Iran denies this, stating that its nuclear programme is for peaceful means. The US and Israel, which are both nuclear powers,  disbelieve this.

Iran has refused to recognize the State of Israel, unlike some other Arab and Middle East countries. The fear of Israel is that Iran’s nuclear weapons programme is an existential threat while the US reasons that a nuclear-power Iran will distort and disrupt the balance of power equations it has adroitly erected and gingerly maintained in the region for its own continued hegemony.

Another reason not officially stated is that the US eyes Iran’s vast oil resources. After the success of its Venezuelan invasion, the argument in some American quarters is that if the US could also “capture” Iran, it would automatically control over 30 per cent of the entire world’s oil reserves. Not only that, with Iran beholden to both Russia and China, which are superpower rivals of the US, dragging Iran into the US orbit would be a huge blow on both China and Russia, which will not only deny them access to Iran’s vital resources but will, after the loss of Venezuela, also mean the loss of another strategic ally.

Thus, regime change in Iran became a very key component of the US agenda. Iran would be attacked; its leadership would be exterminated, a mass uprising against whatever remains of the Islamic regime will unfold and the US will move in not only to install a pliant regime beholden to the US but also one that is permanently crippled and would be unable to pose an existential threat to Israel or any of it neighbours that operate within the US orbit.

The above are goals, stated and unstated, that the US and Israel must have reckoned could not be totally achieved through diplomacy. Only a decimated and conquered Iran will afford them the opportunity to ride roughshod over the Islamic Republic; hence war.

Now, how far have the US and Israel achieved their goals? From video and other pictorial evidence, both the US and Israel substantially destroyed Iranian military and civilian facilities. They virtually wiped out the Iranian leadership, including its leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei; so also were scores of its military officers and top scientists, as well as thousands of other Iranian citizens, hundreds of them being school children.

But whereas Khamenei was killed and regime change effected, it was not along the line envisaged by the US. Khamenei has been succeeded by his son. The Iranian regime remains fully in charge of the country. The public uproar expected from the Iranian population has failed to materialize; instead, the war appears to have solidified majority of Iranians behind their leaders, who were now afforded the opportunity to bear down heavily on dissenters.

The US claimed to have destroyed Iran’s nuclear capability, but it turned out it has only buried the enriched uranium fuselages and will now need to put thousand of boots on ground in Iran to get to where those fuselages are buried deep under the ground, excavate and ship them to the US. What a tall order! The US also claims to have decapitated Iran’s military, yet the same Iran was able to attack locations within Israel, inflicting damages that the media was not allowed to fully report, as well as attacking US military bases and allies in the region.

But, perhaps, the most intriguing aspect is the US report that it has destroyed the Iranian navy; that it no longer possesses the capability to threaten, adding that the US would keep the Strait of Hormuz safe for ships to pass through and ensure that 20 per cent of the world’s crude oil and gas trade that pass through the strait would go on uninterrupted. Not only is Iran still strong enough to close the strait; not only has the US been unable to stop it from doing so; the US’s NATO allies have also declined President Donald Trump’s call for help!

As Iran and the US return to the negotiation table in Pakistan, what ails the entire world is no longer the exchange of missiles by the combatants but Iran’s effective closure and control of the Strait of Hormuz, which the US appears to have tacitly acquiesce to with Trump’s diplomatic language of referring to the strait as “joint venture” between the US and Iran! What does that mean – defeat, acquiesce or what? Did the US and Israel achieve the goals for which they levied war on Iran or did they only succeed in opening Pandora’s box?

*Bolawole (turnpot@gmail.com 0807 552 5533), former Editor of PUNCH newspapers, Chairman of its Editorial Board and Deputy Editor-in-chief, was also the Managing Director/ Editor-in-chief of the Westerner newsmagazine. He writes the “ON THE LORD’S DAY” column in the Sunday Tribune and “TREASURES” column in the New Telegraph newspapers. He is also a public affairs analyst on radio and television.

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The post US-Israel-Iran: Who won and who lost the war? appeared first on Frontpageng.

While the U.S. blockade drew angry rhetoric from Tehran, signs that diplomatic engagement might ‌continue helped calm oil markets, pushing benchmark prices below $100 on Tuesday.

The highest-level talks between the two adversaries since the 1979 Islamic Revolution ended in the Pakistani capital without a breakthrough at the weekend, raising doubts over the survival of a two-week ceasefire that still has a week to run.

However, a source involved in the talks said on Tuesday both countries could return as early as the end of this week, and that a proposal had been shared with Washington and Tehran to resend their delegations.

“No firm date has been set, with the delegations ​keeping Friday through Sunday open,” a senior Iranian source said.

U.S. President Donald Trump said Iran had been in touch on Monday and wanted to make a deal, adding that he would not sanction any agreement ​that allowed Tehran to possess a nuclear weapon.

Since the United States and Israel began the war on February 28, Iran effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz to nearly ⁠all vessels except its own, saying passage would be permitted only under Iranian control and subject to a fee.

Nearly a fifth of global oil and gas supplies previously flowed through the narrow waterway, making the fallout widespread.

In ​a countermeasure, the U.S. military said it began blocking shipping traffic in and out of Iran’s ports on Monday.

Tehran has threatened to hit naval ships going through the strait and to retaliate against its Gulf neighbours’ ports.

A day ​into the U.S. blockade, there had yet to be reports of Washington taking direct action against shipping to enforce it.

Shipping data showed at least three Iran-linked tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz that were not heading to or from Iranian ports.

IMF CUTS GROWTH OUTLOOK

The latest measures have further clouded the outlook for global energy security and the supply of goods that rely on petroleum.

On Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund cut its growth outlook, citing price spikes and supply disruptions driven by the war, and said the global economy would teeter on ​the brink of recession if the conflict worsens and oil stays above $100 per barrel through 2027.

The International Energy Agency sharply cut its forecasts for global oil supply and demand growth, saying both are now expected to fall from 2025 ​levels.

The United States’ NATO allies including Britain and France said they would not be drawn into the conflict by taking part in the blockade, although they have offered to help safeguard the strait by drawing together a defensive multilateral mission to assist when an ‌agreement is in ⁠place.

China, the main buyer of Iranian oil, said the U.S. blockade was “dangerous and irresponsible” and would only aggravate tensions.

NUCLEAR DEMANDS REMAIN FIRM

U.S. Vice President JD Vance, who led Washington’s delegation opposite Iranian parliamentary speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, said on Monday that Iranian negotiators had shown some movement but fell short.

He said Trump was adamant that any enriched nuclear material must be removed from Iran and a mechanism must be established to verify that Iran is not developing nuclear weapons.

Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar echoed that position on Tuesday, speaking to reporters in Jerusalem: “We will never allow Iran to obtain nuclear weapons,” he said. “The enriched materials must be removed from Iran.”

Complicating Pakistan’s efforts to mediate an end to the ​war, Israel has continued targeting Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon.

​Israel and the United States say that campaign ⁠is not covered by the ceasefire, while Iran has insisted it is.

Israeli and Lebanese envoys were to meet in Washington on Tuesday in a rare encounter also expected to be attended by Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

Lebanon’s government has sought negotiations with Israel despite objections from Hezbollah.

Israel killed more than 350 people in Lebanon in the war’s worst strikes ​hours after the Iran ceasefire was announced last week, but later said it was willing to discuss a separate ceasefire with the Lebanese government.

CEASEFIRE STILL HOLDING

With the war ​unpopular at home and rising ⁠energy prices causing political blowback, Trump paused the U.S.-Israeli bombing campaign last week after threatening to destroy Iran’s “whole civilisation” unless it reopened the strait.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted April 10-12, after the ceasefire was announced, showed that 35% of Americans approve of U.S. strikes against Iran, down from 37% a week earlier.

The ceasefire has largely held over its first week despite sharp rhetoric from both sides.

An Iranian military spokesperson called any U.S. restrictions on international shipping “piracy,” warning that if Iranian ports were threatened, ⁠no port in ​the Gulf or Gulf of Oman would be secure.

Trump said Iran’s navy had been “completely obliterated” during the war, adding that only a small ​number of “fast-attack ships” remained.

“Warning: If any of these ships come anywhere close to our BLOCKADE, they will be immediately ELIMINATED,” Trump wrote on social media.

The U.S. military’s Central Command said the blockade would be enforced on vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports in the Gulf and Gulf of ​Oman.

It would not impede neutral transit passage through the Strait of Hormuz to or from non-Iranian destinations, it said in a note to seafarers.

Source: Reuters

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The post US, Iran may resume talks this week despite port blockade appeared first on Frontpageng.

Trump also said in a post on Truth Social that the U.S. would take action against every vessel in international waters that had paid a toll to Iran, and begin destroying mines that he said the Iranians had dropped in the strait, a choke point for about 20% of global energy supplies that Iran has blocked.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards responded with a statement warning that military vessels approaching the strait will ​be considered a ceasefire breach and dealt with harshly and decisively, underlining the risk of a dangerous escalation.

“Effective immediately, the United States Navy, the Finest in the World, will ​begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz,” Trump said in his Truth Social ⁠post.

“I have also instructed our Navy to seek and interdict every vessel in International Waters that has paid a toll to Iran. No one who pays an illegal toll will have safe ​passage on the high seas,” Trump added.

“Any Iranian who fires at us, or at peaceful vessels, will be BLOWN TO HELL!” he added.

Six weeks of fighting has killed thousands, roiled the global economy and sent ​oil prices soaring as Iran prevented traffic through the strait.

MORE NEGOTIATIONS?

In an interview with Fox News after his post about the strait, Trump said that he believed Iran would continue to negotiate and called the weekend discussions “very friendly”.

“I do believe they’re going to come to the table on this, because nobody can be so stupid as to say, ‘We want nuclear weapons,’ and they have no cards,” Trump told Fox News from his golf course ​near Miami, Florida.

Trump also said that NATO allies, whom he has criticised for failing to back the war he launched along with Israel on February 28, wanted to help with the operation ​in the strait.

There was no immediate comment from Washington’s allies.

The weekend talks in Islamabad, which followed the announcement of a ceasefire last Tuesday, were the first direct U.S.-Iranian meeting in more than a decade and the ‌highest-level discussions ⁠since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

“The bad news is that we have not reached an agreement, and I think that’s bad news for Iran much more than it’s bad news for the United States of America,” said Vice President JD Vance, who headed the U.S. delegation.

A U.S. official said Iran had rejected Washington’s call for an end to all uranium enrichment, the dismantling of all major enrichment facilities and the transfer of highly enriched uranium.

The two sides also failed to reach agreement on the U.S. demand that Iran cease funding for Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis as well as fully ​open the strait, the official added.

Iran’s Parliamentary Speaker ​Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, who led his country’s ⁠delegation along with Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, blamed the U.S. for not winning Tehran’s trust, despite his team offering “forward-looking initiatives”.

Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian, who discussed the talks in a call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, said Tehran wanted “a balanced and fair agreement”.

“If the United States returns to the framework ​of international law, reaching an agreement is not far off,” he told Putin, Iranian state media reported.

ISRAEL CONTINUES BOMBING LEBANON

Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news ​agency said “excessive” U.S. demands had ⁠hindered reaching a deal.

Other Iranian media said there was agreement on a number of issues, but the strait and Iran’s nuclear programme were the main sticking points.

Despite the stalemate, three supertankers fully laden with oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, shipping data showed, in what appeared to be the first vessels to exit the Gulf since the ceasefire deal.

Israel has continued bombing Tehran-backed Hezbollah militants in ⁠Lebanon, insisting – ​along with Washington – that that conflict was not part of the Iran-U.S. ceasefire.

Iran says the fighting in Lebanon must ​stop.

The Israeli military said it struck Hezbollah rocket launchers overnight into Sunday and black smoke could be seen rising in the southern suburbs of the Lebanese capital Beirut.

And in Israeli villages near the border, air raid sirens sounded, warning of ​incoming rocket fire from Lebanon.

Source: Reuters

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Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz would be possible for two weeks in coordination with Iran’s armed forces “and with due consideration of technical limitations.”

Trump had made reopening the waterway a condition for the ceasefire and had threatened to target Iran’s energy sector and infrastructure, including bridges, if Tehran failed to comply, setting a deadline of 0000 GMT.

The Strait of Hormuz, crucial to global oil and gas trade, has been largely closed since the United States and Israel launched large-scale attacks on Iran on February 28.

According to a senior U.S. official, Israel will also adhere to what Trump described as a “double sided CEASEFIRE.”

Pakistan, which has mediated between Tehran and Washington, said that an immediate ceasefire between Iran and the US had taken effect.

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif wrote on X that the Islamic Republic of Iran and the U.S., along with their allies, had agreed to an “immediate ceasefire everywhere,” including in Lebanon.

“I warmly welcome the sagacious gesture and extend deepest gratitude to the leadership of both the countries and invite their delegations to Islamabad on Friday … to further negotiate for a conclusive agreement to settle all disputes,” Sharif said.

Trump earlier said Sharif had asked him to refrain from carrying out the threatened attacks.

The U.S. has received a 10-point proposal from Iran and believed it offered a “workable basis” for negotiations, Trump wrote on his platform Truth Social.

According to The New York Times, the plan calls for lifting all sanctions imposed on Iran.

Source: dpa/NAN

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The post U.S., Iran agree two-week ceasefire as Hormuz passage to resume appeared first on Frontpageng.

But it is the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, thousands of miles from Europe, that has nearly broken ​the 76-year-old bloc and threatens to leave it in its weakest state since its creation, say analysts and diplomats.

Trump, enraged that European countries have declined to send their navies to open up the Strait of Hormuz to global shipping ‌following the start of the air war on Feb 28, has declared he is considering withdrawing from the alliance.

“Wouldn’t you if you were me?” Trump asked Reuters in a Wednesday interview.

In a speech on Wednesday night, Trump criticized U.S. allies but stopped short of condemning NATO, as many experts thought he might.

But combined with other barbs aimed at Europeans in recent weeks, Trump’s comments have provoked unprecedented concern that the U.S. will not come to the aid of European allies should they be attacked, whether or not Washington formally walks away.

The result, say analysts and diplomats, is that the alliance created in the Cold War that has long served as the basic fabric of European ​security is fraying and the mutual defense agreement at its core is no longer taken as a given.

“This is the worst place (NATO) has been since it was founded,” said Max Bergmann, a former State Department official who now leads the Europe, Russia, and ​Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

“It’s really hard to think of anything that even comes close.”

That reality is sinking in for Europeans, who have counted on NATO as a ⁠bulwark against an increasingly assertive Russia.

As recently as February, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte had dismissed the idea of Europe defending itself without the U.S. as a “silly thought.” Now, many officials and diplomats consider it the default expectation.

“NATO remains necessary, but we must be capable of thinking of NATO ​without the Americans,” said General Francois Lecointre, who served as France’s armed forces chief from 2017 to 2021.

“Whether it should even continue to be called NATO – North Atlantic Treaty Organization – is a valid question.”

White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said: “President Trump has made his disappointment with NATO and other allies ​clear, and as the President emphasized, ‘the United States will remember.’”

A NATO representative did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

THIS TIME IT’S DIFFERENT

NATO has been challenged before, not least during Trump’s first term from 2017 to 2021, when he also considered withdrawing from the alliance.

But while many European officials until recently believed that Trump could be kept on board with pomp and flattery, fewer now hold that belief, according to conversations with dozens of former and current U.S. and European officials.

Trump and his officials have expressed frustration over what they see as NATO’s unwillingness to help the United States in a time of need, including by not directly assisting with the Strait of Hormuz ​and by restricting U.S. use of some airfields and airspace. U.S. officials have declared NATO cannot be a “one-way street”.

European officials counter that they have not received U.S. requests for specific assets for a mission to open the strait and complain that Washington has been inconsistent about whether such ​a mission would operate during or after the war.

“It’s a terrible situation for NATO to be in,” said Jamie Shea, a former senior NATO official who is now a senior fellow at the Friends of Europe think tank.

“It is a blow to the allies who, since Trump returned to the White House, have ‌worked hard to ⁠show that they are willing and able to take more responsibility (for their own defense).”

Trump’s latest comments follow other signs of an increasingly unsteady alliance.

Those include his stepped-up threats in January to wrest Greenland away from Denmark and recent moves by the U.S. that Europeans see as particularly accommodating toward Russia, which NATO defines as its principal security threat.

The administration has remained essentially mum amid reports that Moscow has provided targeting data for Iran to attack U.S. assets in the Middle East and has lifted sanctions on Russian oil in a bid to ease global energy prices that have spiked during the war.

At a meeting of G7 foreign ministers near Paris last week, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Kaja Kallas, the foreign policy chief of the European Union, had a tense exchange, according to five people familiar with the matter, underlining the increasingly fraught transatlantic relationship.

Kallas asked when U.S. patience ​with Russian President Vladimir Putin would run out over Ukraine peace negotiations, ​prompting Rubio to respond with irritation that the U.S. was ⁠trying to end the war while also providing support to Ukraine, but the EU was welcome to mediate if it wanted to.

NO GOING BACK

Legally, Trump may lack the authority to withdraw from NATO. Under a law passed in 2023, a U.S. president cannot exit the alliance without the consent of two-thirds of the U.S. Senate, a nearly impossible threshold.

But analysts say that, as commander-in-chief, Trump can decide whether the U.S. military will defend ​NATO members. Declining to do so could imperil the alliance without a formal withdrawal.

To be sure, not everyone sees the current crisis as existential. One French diplomat described the president’s rhetoric as a passing ​temper tantrum.

Trump has changed his position on ⁠NATO before.

In 2024, he said on the campaign trail that he would encourage Putin to attack NATO members that do not pay their fair share on defense. By the last annual NATO summit, in June 2025, the alliance was in his good graces, with Trump delivering a speech effusively praising European leaders as people who “love their countries.”

Next week, Rutte, the NATO secretary-general, who has a strong relationship with Trump, is set to visit Washington in an effort to change Trump’s view once again.

Analysts say European nations have good reason to keep the U.S. engaged in NATO despite doubts over whether Trump would come to their defense. ⁠Among other reasons, the ​U.S. military provides a range of capabilities NATO can’t easily replace, such as satellite intelligence.

Even if Trump and the Europeans find a way to stay together in NATO, ​diplomats, analysts and officials say, the transatlantic alliance that has been central to the global order since World War Two may never be the same.

“I do think we’re turning the page of 80 years of working together,” said Julianne Smith, the U.S. ambassador to NATO under Democratic President Joe Biden.

“I don’t think it means the end of the transatlantic relationship, but we’re ​on the cusp of something that’s going to have a different look and feel to it.”

Source: Reuters

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The post Trump’s anger over Iran thrusts NATO into fresh crisis appeared first on Frontpageng.

The plight of an Okada rider in Nigeria has brought into sharp focus, the impact of the ongoing war between Israel and the United States of America on one hand, and Iran on another, as well as its effects on global economy. The okada man set out on his daily hustle last week, looking for daily bread, but after working for several hours, he was back to square one, as there was nothing to show for his effort, no thanks to the skyrocketing price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), otherwise known as petrol.

His day, which began with a visit to a fuel station to buy N5,000’s worth, which could only get him only four litres, turned worse, when after working for just a few hours, the fuel got exhausted, and to his shock, he had only made N5,050. In essence, he made a profit of only N50 after over three hours of work. I don’t know how the bewildered man would present this wild goose chase as his reason for returning empty-handed to his wife and kids eagerly awaiting food at home.

The plight of the Okada rider mirrors what many average people across the world are currently facing. The war in the Middle East is having a devastating impact on global economy. The helpless Okada rider in Nigeria was not consulted when Israel and the USA launched their war against Iran. In actual fact, he is several kilometers away from the theater of the conflict, but its impact is telling on him. How is he going to explain to his wife and kids that the world economy is terribly impacted by a war going on over several kilometers away?

In several cities across the globe, the impact of the war is now being felt in various homes and cities. The price of fuel has risen above 30 per cent, and long queues are back at filling stations in some cities while some countries now ration fuel. If the war mongers had given their actions rigorous thought, perhaps, they would not have embarked on it.

As the war approaches its fifth week, global oil shortages is forcing countries to take severe measures to save their reserves as Iran continues to block oil shipments. While Israel and the US continue their bombardment of Iran, Iran is tightening the noose on the world’s economy by disrupting oil supply chains through the Strait of Hormuz. Even if the war comes to an end and a deal is reached today, unwinding the damage it has caused will take months. Even in the United States, gas prices have reached their highest level in years. The change in oil prices isn’t just impacting drivers alone, as Oil is used to power supply chains; from the machines that manufacture a cell phone to the diesel that powers a truck carrying it to a store.

The oil price increases come even as many Americans are already strained by rising housing costs, high grocery bills, and huge electricity statements. A Gallup poll released last week found that a third of Americans now skip meals and forego other needs just to afford their healthcare needs. Many are wondering whether they did the right thing by electing Donald Trump to office last year for another four-year term. His approval ratings have further plummeted since the war began. In the last few weeks, the average cost of gas in the US has jumped about 30% over the last month, with the national average hitting $3.97, the highest since 2023.

Even diesel, which fuels many of the trucks that transport goods across the nation, has increased further by about 50%, or about $1.69 more than it did a year ago. Higher diesel costs could soon affect transportation costs and, in turn, the cost of groceries, as roughly 85% of agricultural goods are transported by trucks.

In Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, developing economies are bearing the brunt of surging energy costs prompted by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on oil and gas facilities across the Gulf region.

From Pakistan, to Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, through to Jordan, Egypt, and Ethiopia, policymakers are facing the double jeopardy of being both heavily dependent on imported energy, and having limited financial firepower to absorb the shock of spiking prices. In Pakistan, which imports about 80 per cent of its energy from the Gulf and has lurched between economic crises for years, authorities have scrambled to roll out measures to conserve fuel.

Facing the depletion of the country’s petrol and diesel reserves within weeks, officials have closed schools, introduced a four-day working week for government offices, ordered half of the country’s public sector employees to work from home, and slashed fuel allowances for official businesses. Pakistani Prime Minister, Shehbaz Sharif, said last week that he had decided against a proposed hike in petrol and diesel prices before the Eid Al-Fitr celebration, saying that the government would “bear the burden” of rising costs. Sharif’s announcement came after the government had earlier this month approved a 55 rupee ($0.20) rise in the price of a litre (0.26 gallons) of petrol or diesel. While government subsidies have helped to cushion the blow for the public, there are fears that petroleum prices will surge and bring economic activities to a halt if the war drags on.

That explains why Trump is desperate to end the war. He doesn’t have much time. The political, economic, and geopolitical stress of the war is building every day. The moment is approaching when he will face the conundrum that has led predecessors astray from Vietnam to Iraq: whether to intensify a senseless war in a quest for a way out. And Trump desperately wants a way out. But the Iranian are not ready. They have insisted that they did not start the war, they would want to have a say on when and how it would end. Iran has lost much of its leadership and military leaders, but the people are resilient and are not yet ready to give the so-called superpowers the satisfaction of ending the war on only their own terms.

Trump has proposed a 15-points plan to end the war with the conditions that Iran gives up its plans to having a nuclear weapon, hand over its enriched uranium stockpiles, end regional proxy groups, and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz amongst other demands. This is a clear indication that the war has slipped beyond Trump’s control. The Strait, which was open to all tanker traffic when the conflict began has now become a key US demand in negotiations. Trump kept insisting that the Iranians are talking to them and want peace, but Iranian leaders have denied entering into any negotiations with the US and have also come up with their own five-points demand.

Having ran to most of his allies in Europe and many, if not all, turning their backs on him – indicating an indirect signal to him to end the war he started, Trump finds himself alone and forlorn.

Tehran is demanding a complete halt to all forms of aggression and assassinations of their leaders now and in the future. It wants concrete undertakings to ensure the war doesn’t resume, and the payment of war reparations, an end to Israel’s assault on Hezbollah in Lebanon, as well as the right to exercise sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. This would give the Islamic Republic a stranglehold on 20 per cent of the world’s oil supplies and the global economy. Iran has shown in the past that it is willing to talk about its nuclear programme, and has made it severally clear that it is not interested in having a nuclear weapon. In fact, it made a deal with the former US President Barack Obama to freeze the programme, which Trump tore into shreds when he came on board as President for his second term.

For this war to end, payments of huge sums of money may be required as compensation that might enable the shattered Islamic Republic to rebuild its military capacity. With the USA desperately seeking an end to the war, it may be forced to pay. Iran knows that it can’t win a conventional battle with the USA, but it is seeking to impose as much pain on the US through the strangulation of the world economy and Trump have no option but to retreat.

Having ran to most of his allies in Europe and many, if not all, turning their backs on him – indicating an indirect signal to him to end the war he started, Trump finds himself alone and forlorn.

In the next few months, the impact of the war on food supply will become manifest. This is because a third of global urea trade, which is a solid nitrogen fertiliser needed on most farms, passes through the Middle East region, with about 20 per cent of imported fertiliser to the US coming specifically from Qatar. Nitrogen fertiliser is critical to grow corn, which is cultivated by about 500,000 farmers in the US, according to the National Corn Growers Association. The war’s impact on farmers has caught the attention of the White House, which has promised that the US economy wouldn’t be disrupted “very much at all” by supply issues.

The conflict has also disrupted the global helium supply after Iranian attacks in Qatar, the second-largest producer of helium after the United States. The country was forced to halt production at its Ras Laffan industrial complex, which supplies about 20 per cent of the world’s liquefied natural gas. Helium is a key import that is used in aerospace, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and in making semiconductor chips that are used to power AI. Needless to say, America and some of its companies are in deep shit. (Do kindly pardon my French!)

Increases in oil prices has also resulted in higher airfare and shipping costs. Already, the price of jet fuel has doubled since the start of the war, according to the International Air Transport Association, while United Airlines has announced it would have to cut flights due to the surging cost of fuel.

Back home in Nigeria, the steady increase in the price of fuel has had a devastating impact on the purchasing power of most Nigerians, as food inflation, which has been on the downward trend in the last few months, have picked up again. When the war started, a litre of fuel cost N780. Now, the price ranges between N1,300 and N1,400 depending on the location. Consequently, labour leaders are calling on the Federal Government to urgently work out relief plans for workers to cushion the effects of the harsh realities on public servants.

The Oyo State Governor, Seyi Makinde, has belled the cat by approving N10,000 additional transport allowance for workers in the state. Aliko Dangote has also already canvassed the need for workers to work from home in order to reduce the impact of the cost of transportation on workers. Nigeria is several kilometres away from the war zone but still bearing the brunt, no thanks to a war monger who acted first before applying his critical thinking cap on the global consequences of war.

Nevertheless, President Tinubu should come up with measures that would bring succour to the people from the hardship brought upon by the war, and from a long history of economic turbulence in the country. He was elected to solve our collective problems as Nigerians and it is expected that he and his economic team would come up with solutions, and fast too.

See you next week.

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The post Donald Trump’s war, Iran, and the world economy appeared first on Frontpageng.

Washington has dispatched thousands of Marines to the Middle East in the month-old war.

The ‌first of two contingents arrived on Friday on an amphibious assault ship, the U.S. military said on Saturday.

The Washington Post reported on Saturday that U.S. officials said the Pentagon was preparing for weeks of ground operations in Iran, possibly involving raids by Special Operations and conventional infantry troops. Whether President Donald Trump would approve plans for deploying ground troops remained uncertain, the Post reported.

Reuters has reported the Pentagon was considering military operations that could include deploying ground troops in Iran.

LEBANESE JOURNALISTS, RESCUE WORKERS HIT

The war, launched on February 28 ​with U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, has spread across the Middle East, killing thousands and hitting the world economy with the biggest-ever disruption to global energy supplies.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Friday ​the U.S. could achieve its aims without ground troops but that it was deploying some to the region so Trump would have “maximum” flexibility to adjust strategy.

The Pentagon was ⁠also expected to deploy thousands of soldiers from the U.S. Army’s 82nd Airborne Division.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian spoke to Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif of Pakistan, which hosts talks from Sunday with the Turkish and Saudi foreign ​ministers on ways to ease regional tensions.

Israel carried out a wave of attacks on Tehran on Saturday, targeting what Israel’s military said was Iranian government infrastructure.

It also hit targets in Lebanon, resuming its war against Iran-backed Hezbollah, killing three ​Lebanese journalists in a strike on a media vehicle, Lebanon’s Al Manar TV reported, as well as a Lebanese soldier.

A follow‑up strike on the rescue workers sent to assist them also caused fatalities.

Israel’s military said it had targeted one of the journalists, accusing him of being part of a Hezbollah intelligence unit and saying he had reported on locations of Israeli soldiers.

Iran kept up attacks on Israel and several Gulf states after hitting an air base in Saudi Arabia on Friday and wounding 12 U.S. military ​personnel, two of them seriously, in one of the most serious breaches of U.S. air defences so far.

Air defences shot down a drone near the residence of the leader of the Iraqi Kurdish ruling party, Masoud Barzani, ​in Erbil, security sources told Reuters early on Sunday.

Security sources said on Saturday that another drone attack had targeted the home of the president of Iraq’s Kurdistan region.

Israel, which regularly faced missile attacks from the Houthis before the war, ‌confirmed a missile ⁠had been fired at it from Yemen.

There were no reports of casualties or damage.

HOUTHI STRIKES MAY MEAN NEW THREAT TO SHIPPING

The attack pointed to a potential new threat to global shipping, already hit by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, previously a conduit for about a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies.

The group carried out a second strike on Israel, said Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Saree, vowing more strikes to come.

The Houthis have shown an ability to strike targets far beyond Yemen and disrupt shipping lanes around the Arabian Peninsula and the Red Sea, as they did in support of Hamas in the Gaza war.

With U.S. midterm elections due in November, ​the increasingly unpopular war has weighed on Trump’s Republican Party.

He ​has appeared eager to end it soon, while also ⁠threatening escalation.

Demonstrators took to city streets across the U.S. on Saturday in anti-Trump rallies described by organizers as a call to action against the war on Iran.

Trump has threatened to hit Iranian power stations and other energy infrastructure if Iran does not open the Strait of Hormuz.

But he extended a deadline he had imposed for this ​week, giving Iran another 10 days to respond.

Iranian threats to attack ships in the strait have kept most oil tankers from attempting the waterway.

Iran has ​agreed to let an additional ⁠20 Pakistani-flagged vessels pass through the strait, with two ships permitted to transit daily, said Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar.

Israel has targeted Iran’s nuclear infrastructure.

The head of Russia’s state nuclear corporation Rosatom, which has evacuated staff from the Bushehr nuclear power plant on the Gulf coast, said the attacks threatened nuclear safety.

Pezeshkian said Iran would “retaliate strongly if our infrastructure or economic centers are targeted”.

Iranian attacks were reported in multiple areas across the Gulf, including Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates ⁠and Oman.

An Iranian ​airstrike hit the Israeli village of Eshtaol, near Jerusalem.

Seven people were hospitalised, Israel’s ambulance service said.

In Iran, media said at least five people were killed in a U.S.-Israeli attack on a residential unit in the northwestern city of Zanjan, and in Tehran, the Iran University of Science and Technology was ​struck.

Source: Reuters

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The post Yemen’s Houthis enter Iran war with attacks on Israel, while US Marines arrive in region appeared first on Frontpageng.

The Israeli military said several waves of rockets were launched toward central Israel throughout the morning hours.

At least one strike hit the town of Kafr Qasim, located east of Tel Aviv.

Emergency service Magen David Adom reported that six people were wounded in the attack.

Medics arriving at the scene found a building with significant damage, with injuries largely caused by the blast wave.

The injured were treated at the scene before being transported to nearby hospitals.

Israeli officials said that the barrage was part of a broader escalation, with Iran launching at least seven waves of missiles toward Israel over the course of several hours.

Additional rocket fire targeting the Tel Aviv area was also reported overnight from both Iran and neighbouring Lebanon.

Air raid sirens sounded across wide parts of the country, including Jerusalem and northern regions, as emergency services responded to multiple reported impact sites.

The attacks mark a further intensification of hostilities in the region, raising concerns about a wider conflict and its potential aftereffects.

Source: dpa/NAN

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Guterres also urged all sides to step back from the brink and allow diplomacy to prevail, as he announced the appointment of a senior envoy to spearhead peace efforts.

Speaking in New York on Wednesday, the UN chief said the conflict had spiralled far beyond what leaders had anticipated.

“The world is staring down the barrel of a wider war, a rising tide of human suffering, and a deeper global economic shock,” he said.

He added bluntly: “This has gone too far.”

In spite of mounting tensions and continued military escalation, Guterres insisted there remains a path forward.

“Diplomacy must prevail,” he said.

“War is not the answer. We need a way out of this disaster.

“Diplomacy is the way out. Full respect of international law is the way out. Peace is the way out.”

He confirmed he had appointed veteran diplomat Jean Arnault as his Personal Envoy to lead UN efforts to end the conflict.

Guterres regretted that the war had upended the entire region with shockwaves spreading worldwide.

He noted, especially, the impact on energy markets reliant on the crucial Strait of Hormuz chokepoint.

He said the envoy would work “more directly on the ground to support all the efforts for mediation, all the efforts for peace.”

According to him, he will engage with all parties and assessing the conflict’s far-reaching impacts.

Guterres urged the United States and Israel that “it is high time to end the war”, while calling on Iran “to stop attacking their neighbours that are not parties to the conflict.”

He also stressed that freedom of navigation, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, must be respected.

He warned that the prolonged disruption of the Strait was choking vital supplies of oil, gas and fertiliser.

The Secretary-General also cautioned against the broader global fallout, noting that markets are “in turmoil” and humanitarian operations constrained.

He said the economic shock was hitting the most vulnerable hardest, particularly in developing countries already struggling with debt and rising costs.

He pointed to the disruption of fertiliser supplies as a looming threat to global food security.

“Without fertilisers today, we might have hunger tomorrow,” he warned, adding that soaring energy prices risk fuelling inflation and deepening poverty worldwide.

Source: NAN

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The post Gulf war ‘out of control’, Guterres warns appeared first on Frontpageng.