In a no-holds-barred interview, Professor Oriola delivers a damning assessment of Nigeria’s 15-year fight against Boko Haram and banditry.

He concludes that the lack of political will, corruption and the disdain for expert advice were major obstacles to overcoming terror in Nigeria.

Oriola who has done extensive studies on insurgency in Nigeria and the Sahel region said some commissioned officers and some top hierarchy of the Nigerian military were known to sell actionable intelligence to Boko Haram, leading to corresponding attacks and seizure of weapons.

The university don who holds both Nigerian and Canadian citizenship spoke on Deep Insight with Agbonsuremi, a podcast hosted by veteran journalist, Augustine Okhiria Agbonsuremi.

He says it will take up to five years of strong political will, exclusion of corruption and  the deployment of technology to end the Boko Haram siege on Nigeria.

Oriola is a globally recognized expert on terrorism, policing, and state security.

He said, “Poverty in and of itself does not cause crime. A huge part of what contributes to the enterprise of crime and terrorism is embedded and metastasised social inequality.”

According to him, decades of poor performance by the state in providing necessities and giving citizens a sense of direction had created conditions for non-state actors to occupy spaces abandoned by government.

He said many attacks were deliberately carried out in rural communities where government presence was weak or virtually non-existent.

“A lot of these attacks are occurring in rural spaces, whether that is in Oyo State or Borno State. These are not accidents of geography. These are very performative and concise high-selection processes that these bandits or terrorists are making to choose where to attack,” he said.

The criminologist noted that in many rural communities, the absence of police, emergency medical services, electricity and other basic infrastructure had made government almost invisible.

“When you lack such visible presence, even at a performative level in communities, it is an invitation to chaos. You are simply empowering a lot of non-state actors to step in and fill that void,” Oriola said.

Bandits, Terrorists Increasingly Cooperating

Oriola said the distinction between bandits and terrorists was becoming less useful in understanding Nigeria’s current security crisis.

“The distinction now between bandits and terrorists is purely academic. In reality, there has been a convergence and confluence of interests and groups,” he said.

He explained that while the groups maintained different ideological objectives, they had increasingly cooperated in areas such as weapons supply, training, intelligence and hostage management.

According to him, there had been documented instances since at least 2021 of bandits and Boko Haram-affiliated terrorists cooperating to execute attacks.

He described the relationship as “symbiotic”, noting that some bandit groups lacked the capacity to hold large numbers of kidnapped victims for prolonged periods.

In contrast, terrorist groups had developed such capabilities.

Oriola said the cooperation was driven largely by shared operational interests rather than a common ideology.

“Bandit groups don’t necessarily think of spreading Sharia law to any region of a country. That’s for the Islamist-linked groups. But in terms of operational cooperation, provision of weapons, tactical acumen and exchanges, there is a huge level of cooperation going on,” he said.

Southwest Spread Was Inevitable

The university don said the spread of insecurity from the North-East and North-West to the South-West should not have come as a surprise.

He attributed the development to what he described as “contagion”, facilitated by Nigeria’s porous internal borders and free movement of people and goods.

“It was always a matter of time. These things never get contained somewhere, especially with the fluidity and porosity of the borders,” he said.

Oriola warned that if decisive measures were not taken, the violence could spread further to the South-South and South-East, including economically strategic areas.

Political Interference, Intelligence Leaks

The criminologist also raised concerns over political interference in Nigeria’s military and alleged intelligence leaks within the security establishment.

He recalled that during his research, serving military officers had spoken about difficulties in trusting colleagues because of concerns over intelligence leaks.

According to him, his research indicated that some intelligence leaks came from commissioned officers.

“That’s where it starts from, and what the politics of the day favours,” Oriola said.

He linked some of the challenges to the political tensions surrounding the 2015 presidential election, alleging that senior military officers had openly identified themselves with rival political parties.

He said the development created a perception among some officers that political neutrality could negatively affect their careers.

Oriola further alleged that Boko Haram had, particularly around 2010 to 2015, offered as much as $10,000 for actionable intelligence.

He said the ability of insurgents to obtain sensitive information had, in some cases, contributed to attacks on military formations shortly after weapons and equipment were supplied to them.

Military Personnel Need Better Welfare

The professor also blamed poor welfare and inadequate attention to the needs of military personnel for some of the vulnerabilities within the security system.

He said soldiers who risked their lives for the country needed greater assurance that their families would be adequately protected if they were killed in combat.

He cited instances where families of fallen soldiers were allegedly forced out of military barracks and had their benefits or salaries stopped shortly after the death of their breadwinners.

“What message are we sending to the troops at the war theatre about what might happen to their children and their wives if a similar thing happens? This is one of the ways we are indirectly demotivating these individuals,” he said.

Oriola, however, said not all was lost, noting that many Nigerian soldiers remained committed to defending the country.

“There are very gallant officers and soldiers to this day who are willing and ready to lay down their lives for the country. The question is: are we making it worth their while?” he asked.

Funding Not The Major Problem

The criminologist argued that funding was not Nigeria’s biggest problem in tackling insurgency, saying billions of dollars had already been committed to security, weapons and other military resources.

“Coordination has been a big issue, but also sagging patriotism,” he said.

Oriola called for a less politicised approach to security operations, stressing that commanders and personnel should be selected based on competence rather than political considerations.

He also urged the government to deploy modern surveillance technology, including drones, heat sensors and other intelligence-gathering systems, to track insurgents and identify suspicious movements.

According to him, Nigeria does not necessarily need massive troop deployments in every location but should rely more on intelligence-driven operations and specialised forces.

“We will be working with much smaller teams. I would be dealing more with Special Forces, and this would be technologically driven, intelligence-driven,” he said.

He also advocated a stronger system for rewarding citizens who provide credible intelligence, coupled with guarantees of protection for whistleblowers and their families.

Boko Haram has metastasised

Asked to describe the current state of Boko Haram in one sentence, Oriola said the insurgency had evolved beyond its original structure.

“Boko Haram has metastasised. It is no longer contained to a single battlefield. It is no longer a single entity,” he said.

He alleged that the insurgency enjoyed “tremendous organic support” at some high levels of Nigeria’s political and military structures, adding that defeating it would require smarter and more coordinated strategies.

Oriola, however, expressed optimism that Nigeria could regain control of affected areas within two to five years if the right measures were implemented.

“Two years is probably a bit optimistic, but closer to five years is hard on pragmatic. That can happen with tangible results within a year and incremental results afterwards,” he said.

Social Welfare Critical To Defeating Insurgency

He said military action alone would not end the crisis, arguing that Nigeria must also undertake significant social and economic reforms.

According to him, some people had been drawn to insurgent groups because of poverty, lack of opportunities and the absence of attractive alternatives.

He cited cases of women and children rescued from Boko Haram who later returned to insurgent enclaves because they considered their lives there better than what awaited them in wider society.

“We need to create that society that people will choose over going to Boko Haram in their camp in Sambisa Forest,” he said.

Citizens Must Play A Role In Security

Oriola also challenged Nigerians to stop viewing security as the exclusive responsibility of government.

“The presupposition that this is an exclusive preserve of the government” is one of the biggest misconceptions about insecurity, he said.

He urged citizens to report suspicious activities in their communities, arguing that intelligence from ordinary citizens was crucial to preventing crime.

“In Canada, in the US and other Western countries, the police rarely discover crimes. The bulk of the crimes or potentially criminal actions that come to the attention of the authorities are from phone calls, tips and messages from citizens,” he said.

According to him, Nigerians must develop a similar culture of reporting suspicious activities while the government must build enough trust to protect those who provide information.

‘Don’t Let Terrorists Win’

Despite the worsening insecurity, Oriola urged Nigerians not to lose hope or allow terrorism to destroy their commitment to education.

He particularly appealed to parents in conflict-affected communities to continue sending their children to school where it was safe to do so.

“We must not let them win, and we must take education as the first and most significant heritage that we can give to our children,” he said.

Oriola stressed that Nigeria’s security crisis could be overcome if government, security agencies, communities and citizens worked together, combining effective intelligence, modern technology, competent leadership and social and economic reforms.

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Aghanya, who filed the petition that triggered the proceedings against Onnoghen over alleged false asset declarations, alleged that security agencies investigated and had facts about Onnoghen and other matters affecting high-profile individuals, but buried them and refused to act.

Speaking for the first time in eight years in a podcast interview on “Deep Insight With Agbonsuremi,” Aghanya said ARDI’s investigation was not politically motivated but was based on evidence obtained in the course of its work and was not targeted at Onnoghen as an individual.

He said his organisation’s mandate was to investigate issues of public interest and submit its findings to relevant authorities, stressing that law enforcement agencies were responsible for determining what action to take on such reports.

“I want you to know, it is not me, Dennis, it is the NGO. I am the executive secretary of the NGO. A lot of people are involved,” Aghanya said.

He explained that ARDI conducted evidence-based investigations aimed at strengthening the fight against corruption, insisting that the organisation did not select its targets based on political affiliation, friendship or personal interests.

“Corruption should not be fought on a personal basis. The fight against corruption should be fair. It shouldn’t be motivated by either political affiliations or things of that nature,” he said.

Aghanya dismissed suggestions that the petition’s proximity to the 2019 presidential election indicated a political motive.

According to him, the investigation that eventually led to the petition had been ongoing for more than one year before the petition was filed.

He said the investigation began amid concerns about the perceived failure of institutions, particularly the judiciary, to adequately address corruption-related issues.

“That’s a very funny perception by whoever shares that view because this particular issue… was something we had been on for more than one year,” he said.

Aghanya also rejected claims that he was acting on behalf of the Buhari administration, recalling his previous political relationship with the former president but saying their relationship had ended years before the Onnoghen controversy.

He disclosed that he was formerly Buhari’s media spokesperson under the All Nigeria Peoples Party and later became the pioneer National Publicity Secretary of the Congress for Progressive Change.

However, he said he fell out with the CPC leadership after challenging Buhari in court over issues within the party.

“By 2011, we had rumbles in CPC, and we parted ways. That was the last time I had contact with, not just Buhari, but also some other people close to him,” Aghanya said.

He therefore dismissed suggestions that the former president or his administration had used him to achieve a political objective.

“How can somebody that was… I had the guts to go to court against Buhari… So, how can I… after that I never had the opportunity to have anything in common with Buhari,” he said.

Aghanya further defended the integrity of ARDI’s investigation, saying the organisation had forwarded its findings to the appropriate authorities and that the Code of Conduct Bureau’s subsequent decision to prosecute Onnoghen was not within ARDI’s control.

He said critics had focused too much on the eventual outcome of the case instead of examining the evidence in ARDI’s report.

“Everybody is focusing on whether the CCB prosecuted or not; that is not an issue to us. The issue to us, which everybody should be concerned about, is that we carried out an investigation based on facts and evidence, and we forwarded it,” he said.

Asked whether he had apologized to Onnoghen following the former CJN’s removal from office and the eventual collapse of the case at the Code of Conduct Tribunal, Aghanya said he saw no reason to apologise.

“Why? Why the apology?” he asked, arguing that the outcome of the tribunal proceedings did not invalidate ARDI’s investigation.

He maintained that ARDI did not target Onnoghen personally and that its concern was the effectiveness of Nigeria’s institutions in tackling corruption.

“We didn’t target Onnoghen as an individual. Our investigation was not targeted at Onnoghen as an individual. So whether he was cleared or was not cleared shouldn’t be a concern to us,” he said.

Aghanya also claimed that some of the information obtained during the investigation indicated that certain agencies had previously gathered information concerning Onnoghen but failed to act on it.

According to him, ARDI’s intervention helped bring the information to the attention of the relevant authorities.

He described the fight against corruption in Nigeria as a “double-edged sword,” saying those who attempt to expose corruption can themselves face threats and opposition.

“We know that fighting corruption is not easy. It’s a double-edged sword. As you’re fighting corruption, corruption is fighting you back,” he said.

Aghanya disclosed that he and ARDI received threats following the Onnoghen controversy and alleged that the fallout also affected his family relationships.

He said he lost a relationship with a cousin whom he had known since childhood because of disagreements arising from the controversy.

The ARDI executive secretary also said the organisation received no financial assistance or official commendation from the government for its role in the matter, despite claims by some Nigerians that it had acted as an instrument of the administration.

“To date, not even a commendation letter has come. I never expected the government, but maybe some of the anti-corruption agencies. I see people being honoured and things like that. Not even a commendation letter has come to ARDI for a job, a good job well done,” he said.

He, however, said the absence of official recognition had not made him regret his decision to engage in anti-corruption advocacy.

Asked whether, with the benefit of hindsight, he wished ARDI had not filed the petition, Aghanya said no.

“Why should I regret a wonderful job we did?” he asked.

He described the controversy surrounding Onnoghen as unfortunate but maintained that the fight against corruption should not be subjected to exceptions based on the personality involved.

“It was unfortunate. But the fight against corruption should not be; there shouldn’t be an exception. That is, I think, that should be the lesson from what we did,” he said.

Aghanya urged Nigerians to investigate issues before reaching conclusions, particularly regarding the circumstances surrounding the Onnoghen case.

He said anyone who believed ARDI’s findings were manipulated should examine the evidence contained in the organization’s report and determine whether it justified the action taken by the relevant authorities.

“Always investigate before you draw conclusions. The job we did, we did it in good faith,” he said.

He also criticized what he described as a lack of political will to fight corruption in Nigeria, alleging that anti-corruption investigators are sometimes discouraged when their investigations touch powerful interests.

According to him, Nigeria’s corruption problem cannot be solved if citizens continue to defend public officials based on political affiliation, religion, ethnicity or personal relationships.

He said Nigerians should instead focus on the merits of allegations and the effectiveness of institutions established to fight corruption.

Aghanya further disclosed that ARDI remains active in anti-corruption investigations, although its activities have reduced compared with previous years.

He attributed part of the reduction to discouragement arising from the Onnoghen controversy as well as health challenges that kept him away for some time.

He insisted, however, that his involvement in anti-corruption activities was not motivated by financial gain.

“If what I did was based on my expectations for payment, I’m not a small boy. We would sit down and talk and bargain, and you’ll pay me before I’ll do it,” he said.

Aghanya said his involvement in the anti-corruption campaign was driven by personal conviction, adding that he would not regret his role in the Onnoghen matter.

“I cannot have regrets because it was personal conviction. That’s why I don’t regret it,” he said.

Deep Insight With Agbonsuremi is a Podcast dedicated to deepening democracy and governance in Nigeria and anchored by veteran journalist, Augustine Okhiria Agbonsuremi.

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