The party said the uploaded candidates were former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar, its presidential candidate, and former Transport Minister Rotimi Amaechi, vice-presidential candidate, respectively.

The National Publicity Secretary, Malam Bolaji Abdullahi, announced the development on his ‘X’ handle on Tuesday night, describing it as another significant step in preparations for the general elections.

“We are pleased to announce successful upload of the names and particulars of our presidential and vice-presidential candidates to the INEC nomination portal,” Abdullahi stated.

That, he said, underscored ADC’s commitment to offering Nigerians a credible alternative anchored on competence, unity, and national renewal.

Source: NAN

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This is the first time I will feature Dr. Olukayode Ajulo, OON, SAN, as Guest Columnist on this page. He is the Ondo State Attorney-General and Commissioner for Justice. He is, arguably, one of the most active government officials of his status on social media. Very cerebral and confident of his convictions, he addresses two burning issues here today: State policing and the Federal High Court judgment directing the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to deregister four political parties.

Ajulo discusses the need for the creation of State Police, saying it is the completion of Nigeria’s Federal project, citing as examples countries such as the United States of America, Canada and India which maintain multi-layered policing structures that reflect their Federal character; he also cites legal authorities to justify the Federal High Court judgment that threatens to fundamentally alter the shape of electoral contests, beginning with the off-season governorship elections coming up in a few weeks in Ekiti and Osun state. Excerpts:

“History teaches a simple but profound lesson: When a State struggles to guarantee the safety of its citizens, every other promise of the government becomes uncertain. Economic prosperity retreats before insecurity. Education suffers when children fear going to school. Agriculture declines when farmers abandon their farms. Investment evaporates where criminality flourishes. Ultimately, the legitimacy of government itself is tested by its capacity to secure life and property.

“It is, therefore, no coincidence that the framers of the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, 1999 (as amended) placed security at the heart of governance. Section 14(2)(b) provides in clear and unequivocal terms that ‘The security and welfare of the people shall be the primary purpose of government’.

“This constitutional declaration is neither ornamental nor aspirational. It is the foundational obligation of the Nigerian State. Every institution of government derives legitimacy from its capacity to fulfil this sacred constitutional mandate.

“Today, however, Nigeria confronts a security reality, vastly different from that contemplated by earlier generations. Terrorism, banditry, kidnapping, farmer-herder conflicts, communal violence, organised crime, cybercrime and transnational criminal networks have exposed the limitations of a highly centralised security architecture.

“At the centre of this debate lies Section 214(1) of the Constitution, which provides that ‘There shall be a police force for Nigeria, which shall be known as the Nigeria Police Force and, subject to the provisions of this section, no other police force shall be established for the Federation or any part thereof.’

“For decades, this provision has maintained an exclusive Federal  monopoly over policing. While conceived with the legitimate objective of preserving national unity, experience has demonstrated that a nation of over 200 million people, spread across diverse ethnic, linguistic, geographical and cultural communities, cannot indefinitely rely upon a singular centrally-controlled policing structure.

“The question before Nigeria today is, therefore, not whether security should remain a national responsibility. I firmly believe it must. The question is whether security can be more effectively achieved through a constitutional framework that combines Federal coordination with local responsiveness. The growing consensus across the Federation suggests that the answer lies in the establishment of State Police.

“The agitation for State Police is often misunderstood as a call for fragmentation. It is nothing of the sort. Rather, it is a call for the completion of Nigeria’s Federal project. Federalism is not merely a constitutional arrangement; it is a philosophy of governance founded upon the principle that public authority should be exercised at the level closest to the people, except where compelling national interests require otherwise.

“The Supreme Court has repeatedly affirmed the Federal character of the Nigerian constitutional order. In Attorney-General of Ogun State v Attorney-General of the Federation (1982) 3 NCLR 583, the Court emphasised, and rightly so, that powers within the Federation are constitutionally distributed between the Federal Government and the States. Similarly, in Attorney-General of Lagos State v Attorney-General of the Federation (2004) 18 NWLR (Pt. 904) 1, the Supreme Court reaffirmed that neither level of government is intended to be subordinate to the other within its constitutional sphere.

“The logic underlying these decisions is unmistakable: Federalism thrives where responsibility follows capacity, and where governance remains responsive to local realities. Security, therefore, is no exception.

“A Police officer recruited from, familiar with, and accountable to a local community possesses advantages that no centrally-deployed officer can easily replicate. Such an officer understands local languages, customs, terrain, social networks and emerging threats. He is not merely stationed within the community; he is part of it.

“Sir Robert Peel, regarded as the father of modern policing, famously observed that ‘The Police are the public, and the public are the Police’. This principle remains as relevant today as it was in nineteenth-century England. Effective policing depends not merely on force, but on trust, local intelligence and community cooperation. State Police, it must be emphasised, seeks to institutionalise these principles within the Nigerian Federation.

“Nigeria’s current centralised policing arrangement is increasingly an anomaly among Federal systems. The United States operates Federal, State, County and Municipal Police institutions. Canada combines Federal policing with Provincial and local police services. Germany, Australia and India similarly maintain multi-layered policing structures that reflect their Federal character.

“James Madison, one of the principal architects of American federalism, explained in Federalist No. 45 that ‘The powers delegated by the proposed Constitution to the federal government are few and defined. Those which are to remain in the State governments are numerous and indefinite.’ The wisdom behind this principle lies in the recognition that governance becomes more effective when local institutions are empowered to address local challenges. Nigeria’s security challenges increasingly demand a similar constitutional evolution.

“Paradoxically, one of the strongest arguments for State Police is not merely efficiency, but liberty. The concentration of coercive power in a single institution has always troubled constitutional thinkers. Montesquieu warned that ‘Constant experience shows us that every man invested with power is apt to abuse it’. Lord Acton later echoed the same concern that ‘Power tends to corrupt, and absolute power corrupts absolutely.’ The constitutional response to this danger has never been the elimination of power, but its distribution, regulation and accountability.

“State Police, properly constituted and effectively supervised, represents not an expansion of arbitrary power, but a diffusion of authority within a framework of constitutional safeguards. In truth, Federalism itself is one of humanity’s most successful mechanisms for preventing the excessive concentration of governmental power.

“The ongoing constitutional amendment process provides a historic opportunity to modernise Nigeria’s security architecture. The proposed framework contemplates the establishment of two constitutionally-recognised policing institutions: A Federal Police Service responsible for national security, inter-State crimes, terrorism, border protection and other federal concerns; and State Police Services established by individual States through legislation enacted by their respective House of Assembly.”

Dr. Ajulo then elaborately itemised the legal routes that will give birth to State Police while also allaying fears of its abuse by State governments: “Critics of State Police frequently raise concerns about abuse by state governments. These concerns are legitimate and deserve serious engagement (but) the answer to potential abuse is not perpetual centralisation. The answer is robust constitutional safeguards…’

Dr. Ajulo also argues that “Support for State Police does not imply hostility to federal authority”, adding that the relationship between both “should resemble a partnership, not a rivalry.” He also advised the country to learn from history so as to avoid the pitfalls that dogged the path of local policing during the First Republic.

Dr. Ajulo’s views enunciated above agree substantially with mine.

On the judgment ordering the INEC to deregister some political parties, Dr. Ajulo has this to say:

“Since Justice Peter Lifu delivered his judgment deregistering the ADC, Accord Party and others, the public square has erupted with outrage, conspiracy theories and familiar accusations of political manipulation. Fingers are being pointed in every direction and, as usual, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has become the preferred destination for political frustration.

“But beneath the fog of partisan emotions lies one inconvenient truth: Justice Lifu did not create the law; he merely read it. That distinction is everything.

“Section 225A of the 1999 Constitution (as amended) speaks with unusual clarity. Political parties are required to attain stipulated electoral thresholds or face deregistration by INEC… Even more importantly, these provisions did not suddenly emerge from the desk of President Tinubu. They were products of constitutional amendments assented to in 2018 by the late President Muhammadu Buhari. The legal architecture predates this administration and belongs not to any individual but to the Nigerian state itself.

“Justice Lifu merely interpreted what had already been enacted. He did not legislate from the Bench. He did not embark on judicial adventurism. He did not engage in constitutional creativity. He simply performed the sacred duty expected of every disciplined jurist: applying the law as written.

“As Lord Denning would likely remind us, judges interpret laws as they are, not as politicians wish them to be… Before any serious Nigerian joins or builds a political party, the first obligation ought to be legal due diligence…

“The constitutional framework now being criticised emerged during the Buhari administration. Among those who stood at the centre of that government were some of today’s leading political actors and candidates of the ADC – David Mark, Rotimi Ameachi, et al!

“The then Attorney-General and Chief Law Officer of the Federation, Abubakar Malami, SAN, was the principal custodian and defender of the legal architecture of that era. The same constitutional order now attracting criticism passed through the legal machinery over which he exercised significant influence (but) now he is the ADC gubernatorial candidate in Kebbi State!

“History occasionally writes satire better than novelists!”

While I agree with Dr. Ajulo that recent events tend to show that some of our top politicians have not been clinical enough as they hop from one political platform to another, I do not think we have heard the last words on this matter. The appellate courts may still make pronouncements. Rather than celebrate too early, we should keep our fingers crossed for now!

*Bolawole (turnpot@gmail.com 0807 552 5533), former Editor of PUNCH newspapers, Chairman of its Editorial Board and Deputy Editor-in-chief, was also the Managing Director/ Editor-in-chief of the Westerner newsmagazine. He writes the “ON THE LORD’S DAY” column in the Sunday Tribune and “TREASURES” column in the New Telegraph newspapers. He is also a public affairs analyst on radio and television.

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Atiku made the assertion on Monday shortly after casting his vote at the Ajiya Ward Polling Unit in Jimeta Yola, Adamawa State.

The ADC presidential primary took place simultaneously yesterday in 8,809 Wards across the 36 states and the FCT.

Atiku cast his vote amidst a cheering crowd of ADC party faithful who turned out to vote, Monday afternoon.

“The large turnout of voters is a clear indication of how party members are willing to participate in the ADC internal democratic processes”, the former vice president said, adding “I have no doubt that democracy has come to stay.”

Voting started shortly after Atiku, one of the three ADC aspirants (the others being former Rivers State Governor, Rotimi Amaechi and Mohammed Hayatudeen) arrived the venue from Abuja.

The returning officer for the election Hon. Umar Jada, earlier announced that Ajiya ward, had unanimously endorsed the candidature of Atiku Abubakar.

Voting started with the Waziri Adamawa leading a long queue of voters, at the end of which 3,220 votes were cast in favour of Atiku.

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A former governor of Edo State, Chief John Odigie-Oyegun, led other prominent political stakeholders

to collect the form on Amaechi’s behalf at the party’s national secretariat on Friday in Abuja.

The forms were presented to Amaechi’s representatives by the ADC Deputy National Organising Secretary, Atiku Mohammed.

With the development, Amaechi has become the second aspirant in the ADC presidential contest, after Mohammed Hayatu-Deen had earlier obtained the expression of interest and nomination forms.

ADC had been embroiled in leadership crises and multiple court cases.

The development had forced notable members, including Peter Obi and Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, to defect to Nigeria Democratic Congress, NDC.

However, ADC National Publicity, Bolaji Abdullahi, had described the defection of Obi and Kwankwaso as a premeditated move, unrelated to the party’s internal wrangling.

In spite of the ongoing disputes and pending court cases, ADC national chairman, Sen. David Mark, however, assured members that the party would participate in the 2027 general elections.

Source: NAN

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There is a Yoruba proverb whose wisdom travels far beyond tribe, language, or region: Àjànàkú kò ní tí kó máa rìn, àmọ́ ẹsẹ̀ rẹ̀ kan ní yóò yàtọ̀, translate thus – the elephant may change direction, but it remains the same elephant.

It is a proverb about power, appearance, and deception. It warns that movement should not be mistaken for change, and that a shift in direction does not always mean a change in character. Nothing better explains Nigeria’s present political moment.

Across the country, there is renewed excitement around opposition gatherings, declarations, and strategic meetings, especially the recent opposition summit in Ibadan where familiar political heavyweights gathered under the language of rescue, unity, and democratic survival. The message was simple and attractive – Nigeria must be saved from one-party domination, and the ruling order must be challenged.

For many citizens weighed down by hardship, insecurity, and frustration, such language naturally creates hope. But hope must never replace memory. Because the first duty of serious politics is not excitement; it is honesty.

And honesty demands that we ask a difficult question: are Nigerians witnessing genuine political renewal, or merely another rearrangement of the same elite class under a new slogan? Because political movement is not the same as political transformation.

Yesterday’s ruling elite often returns as today’s opposition reformer. Yesterday’s defenders of power suddenly become custodians of democracy. Yesterday’s architects of the old order reappear as prophets of a new republic. The robe changes.

The appetite often does not. This is why citizens must examine opposition politics beyond applause and beyond hatred for incumbents.

When names like Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, Rabiu Kwankwaso, Rotimi Amaechi, Seyi Makinde, and others gather under one roof, it creates the image of national urgency and opposition seriousness.

But coalition is not photography.

A coalition is not a group picture. It is not a press statement. It is not men sharing microphones and exchanging anti-government speeches. Coalition is built on sacrifice, trust, and a shared vision of governance.

And that is where the real problem begins. What exactly binds these men together beyond the idea that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu must be defeated?

Is there a shared economic doctrine? A common constitutional vision? A clear restructuring agenda? A security philosophy? A governance model beyond replacing the current occupant?

If the only unifying principle is “Tinubu must go,” then what exists is not yet a national alternative; it is an emotional alliance.

Emotion can win applause. It cannot run a country.

This is not the first time Nigeria has seen this. In 2015, the All Progressives Congress itself was born from a broad coalition of strange political bedfellows united primarily by one goal to remove the People’s Democratic Party and defeat Goodluck EbeleJonathan. It succeeded because electoral arithmetic defeated ideological inconsistency.

But once power was won, the contradictions returned. Progressives, conservatives, regional blocs, ex-military power brokers, all sharing one throne and negotiating one inheritance.

Victory was arithmetic. Governance became architecture. Many coalitions master the first and fail at the second. This is not unique to Nigeria.

In Kenya, the National Rainbow Coalition defeated the old KANU order in 2002 through broad anti-incumbent unity. But internal fractures followed because the coalition was better at removing power than managing it.

In South Africa, the anti-apartheid alliance succeeded not only because it opposed apartheid, but because it carried a moral architecture for nation-building beyond regime removal.

That difference matters.

A coalition built only on resentment often collapses when victory arrives because the common enemy disappears and ambition returns.

That is why another Yoruba proverb becomes important – Àgbájọ ọwọ́ la fi ń so’yà; àjèjì ọwọ́ kì í gbé ẹrù d’órí; joined hands lift the mortar; unfamiliar hands cannot carry a heavy burden together.

The Nigerian opposition must answer this truth.

Can unfamiliar ambitions truly carry one national burden together? Or are we simply watching a parade of personal ambitions disguised as patriotism?

The ruling party understands this weakness.

For the APC and Tinubu, the greatest political weapon is not popularity but incumbency. In Africa, incumbency is often stronger than ideology. It controls appointments, patronage, timing, institutional influence, and the language of state authority. Tinubu is not politically accidental. He is a system builder.

But incumbency also carries danger.

No government is defeated more effectively than by the suffering of ordinary people.

Inflation is political.

Fuel prices are political.

Food scarcity is political.

Insecurity is political.

The inability of citizens to breathe economically becomes the strongest campaign against any government.

Governments are rarely removed by speeches. They are removed by lived hardship.

This is where the opposition finds its oxygen.

But citizens must also confront themselves.

It is easy to blame politicians alone. Harder to admit that bad systems survive because citizens repeatedly negotiate with them.

Vote-buying survives because people collect.

Ethnic politics survives because people protect “their own” even against national interest.

Corruption survives because public outrage often ends where private benefit begins.

This is not a tribal problem. It is a national moral problem.

Northern, Southern, Christian, Muslim, Yoruba, Hausa, Igbo every region has suffered from the same sickness: loyalty to tribe over loyalty to truth.

And when identity becomes stronger than citizenship, the nation becomes weaker than ambition.

Again, Yoruba wisdom speaks plainly: Bí ọmọde bá fi ọwọ́ ọ̀tún bà èérú, a fi ọwọ́ òsì fà á mọ́ra, which translate – when a child touches ash with the right hand, the left hand pulls it closer.

Sometimes the victim helps sustain the fire.

That is Nigeria’s hardest truth.

The ruling party seeks continuity.

The opposition seeks re-entry.

The people seek rescue without discipline.

That triangle produces stagnation.

Even the question of who becomes the opposition standard bearer reveals the same problem. It may not be the strongest candidate who emerges, but the least resisted the one powerful interests can tolerate.

Atiku carries reach but also fatigue.

Peter Obi carries moral momentum but limited establishment trust.

Kwankwaso carries regional discipline but narrow national comfort.

Amaechi carries experience but limited emotional pull.

Makinde carries strategic relevance but perhaps a longer political timetable.

Sometimes coalitions do not choose the best man.

They choose the safest compromise.

And compromise without conviction often produces government without direction.

This is why Nigeria’s real struggle is not APC versus opposition.

It is system versus reform.

Do Nigerians want a new government, or do they want a new political culture?

The two are not the same.

One changes occupants.

The other changes outcomes.

And until citizens learn that difference, the same elephant will keep changing direction while remaining the same elephant.

The names will change.

The speeches will change.

The slogans will change.

But the country will remain trapped in the same circle mistaking motion for progress and rehearsal for rebirth.

History is watching.

And history is rarely deceived by costume.

*Ogundipe, public affairs analyst, former president of Nigeria Union of Journalists and Africa Union of Journalists, writes from Abuja.

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The protest began from Maitama Roundabout to INEC headquarters in the Federal Capital Territory, FCT.

The protest was led by Mark, the party’s national chairman, also former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar, Mr Peter Obi, Dr Rabiu Kwankwaso, Rotimi Amaechi, Aminu Tambuwal and Dino Melaye.

Speaking during the protest, Mark said that the interpretation of court judgments was the exclusive preserve of the judiciary, and not that of the INEC  chairman.

He said that attempting to assume the role of the judiciary amounted to a serious constitutional breach and an affront to the doctrine of separation of powers.

“INEC’s earlier correspondence to ADC reinforces the perception that the commission has abandoned neutrality and has instead aligned itself with factional interests.

“This is not only improper, it is dangerous for the credibility of our electoral system, ” he said.

Mark said it was on record that the individual in question attended the NEC meeting of ADC, where the NWC, led by Chief Ralph Nwosu, and of which Nafiu Bala was a member, was dissolved.

“Having participated in that decision, any subsequent reliance on his former authority, position or signature is fundamentally flawed, contradictory and devoid of legal credibility,” he said.

In a protest letter signed by Mark and Rauf Aregbesola, and submitted to INEC during the protest, ADC demanded immediate resignation of INEC chairman, Prof. Joash Amupitan.

The party also demanded the immediate withdrawal of INEC’s “offensive correspondence” to ADC and a formal apology to the party.

The protesters called for a clear commitment by INEC to refrain from further interference in the internal affairs of political parties.

ADC said it would activate all lawful and constitutional mechanisms to ensure accountability, including judicial  proceedings and coordinated civic action if INEC failed to comply with its demands.

A faction of the party, led by Nafiu Bala, had engaged the Mark faction in a legal battle over the control of the party.

INEC had suspended the recognition of the two factions, following a Court of Appeal ruling and the ongoing litigation at a Federal High Court over the party’s leadership.

Source: NAN

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This year’s edition, which will be the fifth in the series, will hold on Thursday, April 23, at the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs, NIIA, Kofo Abayomi Street, Victoria Island, Lagos.

The event will start at 10 a.m. prompt.

A statement by the Managing Director and Editor-in-Chief of TheNiche, an online newspaper, Mr. Ikechukwu Amaechi, on Tuesday, said the lecture would be delivered by Dr Alex Chioma Otti, Governor of Abia State, under the chairmanship of Muhammadu Sanusi II, Emir of Kano.

Before becoming Abia governor on May 29, 2023, Otti, a renowned banker was the Managing Director of Diamond Bank Plc., a major Nigerian retail bank that merged with Access Bank in 2019 to form a larger entity.

In the same vein, before becoming the Emir of Kano, Sanusi, who doubles as the spiritual leader (khalifa) of the Tijanniyah Sufi order in Nigeria and neigbouring countries, was also the Managing Director of First Bank of Nigeria – Nigeria’s oldest bank, and one of Africa’s largest financial institutions.

He was the first northerner to head the bank.

He was also appointed Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN, by late President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua in 2009.

Amaechi said the choice of Otti as the guest speaker and Emir Sanusi as the chairman was deliberate.

“As Nigeria goes into another silly season of politics, the electorate need to be reminded, to use the phrase of James Carville, former U.S. President Bill Clinton’s 1992 presidential campaign strategist, that ‘it is the economy, stupid.’ There is also the need to remind leaders at all levels to keep the campaign focused on economic issues,” the statement said.

“Both Governor Otti and Emir Sanusi are unarguably among the best, not only in Nigeria but also globally on issues of the economy and sundry financial matters. So, the idea of the lecture this year is to jumpstart the much needed discussion on the economy we have and the governance we need. The lecture will dissect the country’s economic reality and the discipline, or lack of it, of governance.”

Amaechi noted that the 2026 lecture under the auspices of TheNiche Foundation for Development Journalism will be the fifth in the series.

Previous guest speakers include Prof Kingsley Moghalu, Prof Anya O. Anya, Mr Babatunde Raji Fashola, former Lagos State Governor and former Minister of Power, Works and Housing; and Mr Chibuike Rotimi Amaechi, former Rivers State Governor and Minister of Transportation.

Past chairpersons also include Prof Remi Sonaiya, late Dr Christopher Kolade, Alhaji Tanko Yakasai and Dr Uma Eleazu.

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The theme of the conference is “Urgent call to save Nigeria’s democracy.”

Present are former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar and the 2023 presidential candidate of Labour Party, Mr Peter Obi.

Also present are former ministers, Rauf Aregbesola and Rotimi Ameachi; former governor of Cross River, Liyel Imoke, and the national chairman of African Democratic Congress, ADC, Sen. David Mark.

Others are the national chairman of New Nigeria People’s Party, NNPP, Dr Ahmed Ajuji, former Sen. Dino Melaye and Yunusa Tanko.

The National Assembly had, on Februrary 17, passed the Electoral Act 2026 (Amendment) Bill.

The amendment came amid intense public debate over the electronic transmission of election results in real time.

The harmonised report of the bill, including the contentious Section 60(3), was passed by both chambers of the National Assembly, while it was signed into law by President Bola Tinubu on February 18.

The news conference, holding at Transcorp Hilton Hotel, Abuja, is expected to commence any moment from now.

Source: NAN

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He was joined by some political leaders in the South East of the country to defect to the ADC, at the event which took place in Enugu, the capital of Enugu State, on Wednesday.

It would be recalled that former vice president, Atiku Abubakar; former governor of Rivers State, Rotimi Amaechi, and former governor of Kaduna State, Nasir El-Rufai, among other top politicians had defected to the ADC, some months ago.

Speaking at the occasion, Obi said his move was informed by the need to join hands with others and rescue Nigeria from the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC, which he accused of poor governance.

His words: “Today is an important day; today is the last day of 2025, so we are ending this year with the hope that, in 2026, we will begin a journey of the rescue of our country for proper socio-economic development that will be unifying and inclusive.

“We have all watched those who benefited from our democracy, sometime now, become accessories to destroying our democracy, either through coercion and gangsterism against the opposition. We cannot allow this to happen, we will resist it.”

He stated further: “And we are saying that those who are planning to rig elections in Nigeria come 2027, we will resist it by every means lawful and legitimate. This happens because we have weak institutions like the INEC, which we are urging to act properly in the coming election.

“We must do whatever it takes to follow the rules and regulations, starting from educational qualification for eligibility to contest or seek any election.

“We can no longer be in a situation where they are asking whether this person went to school or not. We have one year now to determine who went to school and who didn’t go to school.”

Present at the occasion among others were former Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives, Emeka Ihedioha; Senators Ben Obi; Victor Umeh; Tony Nwoye, and Gilbert Nnaji; Chief Onyema Ugochukwu; Enyinnya Abaribe, and Senator Sam Egwu.

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Economic reform is never painless. Every nation that has had to correct profound distortions has faced the same choice: take the hard medicine early, or delay and pay much more later. In times of public frustration, it is tempting to reach for the “gentle” option (the idea of gradual change), being pushed by some opposition elements in Nigeria, begins to sound reasonable. Peter Obi says, “Keep subsidies for a while.” For Atiku Abubakar, it is “Guide the currency quietly from behind the curtain.” Rotimi Amaechi and Nasir El-Rufai want to “Push the tough structural work into another year.” On the surface, it feels safer. But history is clear on where that road leads.

When Bulgaria began its transition from communism in 1990, its leaders were afraid of the shock that rapid liberalisation might cause. They freed some prices but kept politically sensitive subsidies in place, just as Peter Obi proposes. The subsidies drained the treasury, fuelled inflation, and collapsed the currency. They maintained a soft peg for the lev without reserves to defend it, exactly as Atiku Abubakar suggests for the naira. The peg broke, reserves vanished, and hyperinflation soared above 2,000 percent. They warned against “too much at once,” echoing Rotimi Amaechi and Nasir El-Rufai, and delayed the restructuring of state enterprises. Six years later, pensions were worthless, shops were empty, and the reforms they feared were forced on them in far harsher form.

Nigeria today is on a very different trajectory. From his first day in office, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu took on the biggest distortions head-on. The petrol subsidy, which drained over four trillion naira a year, is gone. The naira now trades at a market-driven rate, closing the damaging gap between official and parallel exchange rates. The Central Bank has returned to orthodox monetary policy, raised interest rates to fight inflation, and cleared more than seven billion dollars in verified FX backlogs that had become a national credibility problem. That clearance restored credibility to our financial system and prompted the International Air Transport Association to remove Nigeria from its list of countries blocking airline funds. That reversal matters because it signals to every global balance sheet that Nigeria pays its obligations again.

These decisions have delivered measurable wins in record time. The World Bank estimates subsidy savings of around two trillion naira in 2023 alone, with cumulative savings expected to exceed eleven trillion naira by 2025. This money is already being channelled into infrastructure, healthcare, and targeted social programmes across the country. Portfolio inflows in the last quarter of 2024 hit 5.6 billion dollars, more than the total of the previous two years combined and a clear sign that rule clarity is drawing money back to local assets. Non-oil tax revenue has grown by more than twenty per cent year-on-year.

Price pressure remains the public’s sharpest pain, but the first signs of relief are appearing. Official data show headline inflation eased in June 2025 from May, the first back‑to‑back moderation in many months. Disinflation never arrives in a straight line. What matters is direction and credibility of policy. Both are moving the right way.

Yet this is the stage when voices, mostly driven by parochial interest, will call for a pause. Some will say households need breathing space and subsidies should return in another form. Others will argue that the naira is too weak and should be fixed at a stronger rate. There will be calls to slow fiscal clean-up until “conditions improve.” The bandwagon Association of Displaced Politicians, and the economists they front, want us to go back to Bulgaria 1990.

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Atiku Abubakar’s “acceptable rate” is the same illusion that emptied Bulgaria’s reserves and shattered its peg. Peter Obi’s “phased removal” is the same phased lie Bulgaria told itself until the economy collapsed. Nasir El-Rufai’s warning about “too much at once” is exactly what Bulgaria’s leaders said before the crash. Rauf Aregbesola’s “prioritise the people before the economy” mirrors Bulgaria’s fatal separation of the two, where the collapse of the economy destroyed the very livelihoods they claimed to protect – as if the economy is not the lifeline of the people. Rotimi Amaechi’s call to slow down is the same thinking that turned hardship into collapse.

These are not alternative strategies. They are invitations to failure. They are the comfort-now, crisis-later prescriptions that have failed every country that tried them. And in every country where this happened, the politicians who sold them were gone by the time the bill arrived.

The same politicians who had their turn in power and left Nigeria with a broken FX regime, ballooning subsidies, and a dangerous debt overhang now want to lecture about “protecting the people” by bringing back the very distortions that were killing growth. That is not protection. That is sabotage dressed as sympathy.

A soft peg without deep reserves burns credibility while draining scarce foreign exchange. Partial liberalisation keeps the price distortions that breed shortages and arbitrage. Delaying the clean-up of state owned enterprises only compounds losses and pushes the real costs into the future.

Once you retreat from hard reforms, investor trust evaporates, deficits swell again, and the cost of borrowing climbs. The longer you wait, the fewer options remain when the next shock comes. And when that bill finally arrives, it is always larger than it would have been if settled early.

We have seen this film before. In 1990 Bulgaria called it gradual reform. By 1996, pensions were worthless, shops and shelves were empty, and the same politicians who promised a soft landing had fled the wreckage. The dire situation in. Bulgaria forced a desperate rescue the following year under conditions far harsher than anything they had wanted to avoid. I confidently repeat that, in Nigeria, those pushing this fantasy today will not be around to clean up the mess tomorrow. The only question is whether we have the discipline to finish the job or whether we hand the steering wheel back to the people who drove us into the ditch in the first place.

Nigeria is not Bulgaria in 1990. We will not drift toward collapse because a few familiar names prefer popularity over responsibility. The alternative is to hold the line and let the compounding work in our favour. Clean our books and keep the auction rulebook predictable. Keep subsidy savings transparent and tied to visible projects so citizens can see where the money now goes. Keep monetary policy tight until inflation is back within a credible band and do not second‑guess the float with administrative fixes that markets will immediately punish.

The IMF’s recent assessment underscored that Nigeria’s policy direction restores repayment capacity and anchors stability if pursued consistently. That is the quiet endorsement that disciplined reformers earn.

Because this debate will not end here, it is worth meeting the counter‑arguments head on. Some say the pain on households is too high and too fast. The truth is the subsidy was never free. It was paid through bad roads, weak schools, failing hospitals and heavy borrowing that our children would service. Redirected savings are how you rebuild those services. Others say the float has made the naira too weak and that we should fix it at a stronger number. A number without reserves is only a promise. Markets test promises. Bulgaria failed that test in 1990 and paid for it in 1996. Nigeria should not repeat it. Another claim is that investors are not yet flooding in, so reforms are not working. They rarely flood in at the start. They watch for consistency, then move quickly. The late‑2024 surge in portfolio inflows is exactly that early signal. Hold the line and the longer term money follows.

But as Mr President has always said and I am fully aware, Nigeria’s path is not without discomfort, but it is the only one that gives us a fighting chance to rebuild. The facts of upward, positive change are not in dispute. It is already producing the first signs of stability and renewed investor interest. The trajectory, if we hold it, leads to a competitive and credible naira, a fiscally stronger state investing in power, roads, and schools instead of fuelling petrol imports, and an economy where capital flows in because the rules are predictable and the numbers add up. Growth will no longer be hostage to oil prices alone, and the non-oil revenue gains of the current and past year are the proof.

Nigeria’s reforms today are closer to Bulgaria’s 1997 reset which is the one that finally worked, rather than to its failed 1990s drift. The difference is that Nigeria is doing it before hitting hyperinflation or a currency collapse.

The opposition has shown that they have chosen collapse. Some former allies have joined them. The rest of us must hold the line. History has already written the ending for the road they want. We have chosen a different ending.

There is no painless exit from decades of distortion. The choice is as stark as it is simple. Pain now with a recovery you can see, or comfort now with a collapse you cannot control. Bulgaria 1990 is the warning. Nigeria 2023 is the opportunity. We are already making in months the progress that took years for countries in similar positions. If we keep our nerve, stay transparent, and refuse the detours that have failed elsewhere, we will not just avoid Bulgaria’s trap. We will write the modern African recovery story others will study.

And this is the truth we must hold to. The easy road has never led any nation to greatness. What we are doing under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is hard, but it is necessary. We will be judged not by how loud the complaints were in the first year, but by the strength of our economy in the fifth and thereafter. If we see this through, the same Nigerians who today feel the sting will one day stand as proof that under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Nigeria chose courage over comfort, and that choice changed the destiny of our nation for good and forever. And if we have the discipline to finish this path, it will be the one in which Nigeria wins.

The tiger’s final take: The koko of the matter

Bulgaria’s 1990 reforms teach us that gradualism in the face of structural crisis is not kindness. it is negligence in slow motion.

Nigeria’s current path under President Tinubu is the opposite. It is tough, urgent, and forward-looking. If we hold this line, the discomfort will give way to resilience, competitiveness, and prosperity.

Nigeria’s reforms today are closer to Bulgaria’s 1997 reset which is the one that finally worked, rather than to its failed 1990s drift. The difference is that Nigeria is doing it before hitting hyperinflation or a currency collapse.

It is the hard road, but it is the right road, and it leads upward. This is the best time to Bet on Nigeria.

*Ogra is the Senior Special Assistant to President Bola Tinubu of Nigeria on Digital Communications, Engagement, and Strategy.

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