By TOBA ALABI
Introduction
As Nigeria marks twenty-six years of uninterrupted democratic rule under the Fourth Republic in 2025, there are growing concerns about the health and future of its multiparty democracy. Once lauded as Africa’s beacon of political plurality following its return to civilian governance in 1999, Nigeria’s democratic landscape is witnessing an alarming contraction. The political terrain is increasingly tilted in favor of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), not solely due to electoral superiority, but significantly through a wave of high-profile defections, weakening opposition structures, and a disturbing trend toward a hegemonic party system. At the heart of this shift is the apparent disintegration of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), which held federal power from 1999 to 2015, but has since suffered internal implosions, credibility crises, and a steady loss of its political base.
A watershed moment in this evolving dynamic came with the defection of Delta State Governor Sheriff Oborevwori to the APC in early 2025—a move that sent shockwaves through the political establishment. Delta State, a traditional PDP stronghold in the oil-rich South-South zone, had been one of the few remaining bastions of opposition influence. The governor’s defection, followed by an exodus of commissioners, legislators, and local government officials, effectively erased PDP’s foothold in a region that once symbolized its power and prestige. This dramatic shift did not occur in isolation. It is the latest in a series of similar defections in states such as Zamfara, Ebonyi, Cross River, and Sokoto, signaling the rise of an unchallenged political leviathan.
This article interrogates the deeper meanings and implications of these massive defections, the crises engulfing Nigeria’s leading opposition parties, and the potential consequences of an emerging one-party dominance. It explores the political, legal, and ethical dimensions of party-switching in Nigeria, the fragility of ideological commitment, and the structural weaknesses within the PDP and the Labour Party. More importantly, it raises alarm over what the growing imbalance in Nigeria’s party system portends for democratic consolidation, civic engagement, and national unity. In a country as diverse and complex as Nigeria, the weakening of opposition voices does not merely affect electoral competitiveness; it endangers the very fabric of democracy and pluralism.
The Delta State Defection and Its Symbolism
Delta State has long stood as a PDP stronghold since Nigeria’s return to democracy in 1999. The defection of its sitting governor, Sheriff Oborevwori, in February 2025 is thus not merely symbolic—it is seismic. It represents the dismantling of one of the last bastions of PDP influence in the South-South geopolitical zone.
Governor Oborevwori’s defection was justified on grounds of “aligning with the center for the sake of development.” This rationale mirrors similar arguments made by past defectors but belies deeper issues: the decline of party loyalty, the collapse of internal democracy within the PDP, and the increasing centralization of political power within the APC. Following Oborevwori’s move, commissioners, legislators, and local government officials in Delta quickly followed suit, effectively neutralizing PDP’s organizational strength in the state.
This development adds to a growing list of defections in Ebonyi, Zamfara, Cross River, and Sokoto, marking a broader trend toward APC dominance across the federation.
PDP: A Party in Crisis
The PDP’s descent from dominance to near-irrelevance is rooted in unresolved internal contradictions. Since losing federal power in 2015, the party has struggled with leadership instability, factionalism, and a failure to evolve ideologically.
A key turning point was the party’s handling of the 2023 presidential ticket. Atiku Abubakar’s emergence as the PDP’s candidate—despite widespread calls for power rotation to the South—was widely viewed as a betrayal by southern stakeholders. This led to the formation of the “G-5 Governors” (from Rivers, Oyo, Abia, Enugu, and Benue states), who actively worked against Atiku’s candidacy.
The fallout from that internal rebellion has continued. High-profile exits from the party include former Governor Emeka Ihedioha of Imo, former Governor Ifeanyi Okowa of Delta, and the suspension of Senator Iyorchia Ayu as National Chairman.
PDP’s inability to manage internal grievances and enforce discipline has left it deeply fragmented, vulnerable to external poaching, and increasingly irrelevant on the national stage.
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Labour Party (LP): From Momentum to Malaise
The Labour Party emerged as a third force in the 2023 elections, propelled by Peter Obi’s charisma and youth-led mobilization. However, post-election, the party has suffered from internal discord, lack of structure, and a growing perception of elitism and disorganization.
To reverse this trend, Nigeria must enforce anti-defection laws rigorously, promote internal democracy within parties, strengthen judicial independence, empower civil society and independent media, and foster a political culture rooted in ideology, not opportunism.
A protracted leadership battle between Julius Abure’s faction and the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) has cast doubts on the party’s legitimacy. Accusations of mismanagement, poor internal democracy, and financial opacity have undermined public confidence.
Peter Obi’s reluctance to decisively mediate in the leadership dispute has made things worse. His brand remains strong, but the party machinery is weak. Without a coherent institutional framework or ideological clarity, the LP risks squandering its historic opportunity.
APC: The Central Magnet of Power
In contrast to the crises within opposition parties, the APC has skillfully positioned itself as the national center of political gravity. It has absorbed disaffected politicians from across the spectrum by offering access to federal patronage, protection, and political survival.
Under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s leadership, the party has consolidated its hold over the presidency, over 28 of 36 state governments, and a two-thirds majority in the National Assembly.
Tinubu’s political pragmatism—honed over decades—has allowed the APC to maintain a broad coalition of interests, even amid its own contradictions. The result is a party that is increasingly dominant but also raising concerns about democratic consolidation and political pluralism.
Legal and Ethical Issues in Political Defection
Nigeria’s Constitution, in Section 68(1)(g) and 109(1)(g), prohibits elected legislators from defecting to another party unless there is a division in their original party. However, this provision is rarely enforced. Governors and other high-profile politicians defect with impunity, eroding the integrity of the electoral mandate.
The judiciary has often been complicit through delayed rulings or inconsistent interpretations. This legal inertia has entrenched a culture where politicians see party affiliation as a means to an end, not a commitment to democratic ideals.
Rotational Presidency and Its Discontents
Nigeria’s unwritten but widely respected principle of rotational presidency between North and South has long served as a stabilizing mechanism. Atiku’s 2023 candidacy, following eight years of Buhari’s northern presidency, disrupted this balance and deepened national distrust.
Now, as APC prepares for 2027, it faces its own zoning dilemma. Having elected Tinubu, a southern Muslim, the expectation is that he completes another four years before power returns to the North. Mishandling this sensitive issue could splinter the ruling coalition and stoke fresh regional tensions.
Implications of a De Facto One-Party State
The drift toward one-party dominance threatens Nigeria’s democratic experiment in several ways.
First, there is an erosion of checks and balances. Without viable opposition, legislative oversight becomes weaker, enabling executive overreach.
Second, a dominant party structure often breeds intolerance for alternative views, shrinking civic space.
Third, democracy thrives on debate and choice. APC’s dominance risks producing a monolithic political culture lacking innovation or critique.
Finally, if voters perceive that only one party can win, electoral participation and faith in the process may decline.
Conclusion
The massive defections from the PDP to the APC, culminating in the Delta State Governor’s switch, are symptomatic of deeper institutional failings in Nigeria’s party politics. The PDP’s implosion and the Labour Party’s internal crisis have created a political vacuum swiftly filled by the APC. While this may appear as political consolidation, it raises alarms over Nigeria’s democratic trajectory.
To reverse this trend, Nigeria must enforce anti-defection laws rigorously, promote internal democracy within parties, strengthen judicial independence, empower civil society and independent media, and foster a political culture rooted in ideology, not opportunism.
Without such reforms, Nigeria risks evolving into a one-party state in all but name—undermining the very principles that underpin the Fourth Republic.
*Alabi is Professor of Political Science, Defence and Security Studies. ([email protected] / 08036787582)
