By Thursday this week, the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu will clock two years. That should be half way in his four-year tenure as President. It is time to take a critical look at what his government promised Nigerians when seeking our votes in 2023 and what they have been able to deliver.
A two-year-old child should be able to walk unaided if there are no underlining issues. He or she should be running up and down and should have been weaned off breastmilk. Since his administration came on board two years ago, can we say that Nigeria and Nigerians are better off? Has our standard of living improved? How many Nigerians have been lifted out of poverty or the other way around?
We have been told by his handlers that Tinubu met a very bad situation when he came on board and that the financial re-engineering that he put in place saved the nation from economic collapse. Indeed, we all agree that Tinubu, on his first day in office, hit the ground running when he declared that fuel subsidy is gone and gone for good. Prior to his coming on board, the nation was spending more than half of its resources to subsidize petroleum products, particularly fuel. We even took loans from foreign partners and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to ensure that Nigerians continue to get cheaper fuel to buy. The question still begging for answers is that as an oil producing nation, why should Nigerians be paying through their noses for what God gave us freely?
For over four decades, Nigeria’s fuel subsidy regime functioned as a fiscal black hole, swallowing trillions of naira annually, benefitting a cartel of middlemen and smugglers, and distorting domestic pricing without improving access or quality of life for average Nigerians. Previous administrations made half-hearted attempts to reform it, only to buckle under political pressure or mass protest. The result was a recurring cycle of policy cowardice and economic sabotage.
As a nation, we lost an estimated ₦4 trillion annually to opaque subsidy payments. But Tinubu says no more subsidy. However, his reform came with a huge price, borne majorly by the masses. Price of petrol jumped from less than N200 to almost N1,000. Along with it went cheaper transportation cost with a ripple effect on the prices of goods and services, which soon hit the roof. Most Nigerians found it difficult to eat three square meals a day, but kept faith that better days are ahead.
Again, the masses were told that the funds saved from the fuel subsidy removal would be redirected toward nation-building projects such as rural roads, mass housing, education, healthcare, and social protection. Now, ask yourself how many rural roads have been tarred? Do we now have mass housing schemes that can be accessed by average Nigerians? Can the ordinary Nigerian afford healthcare services and adequately take care of their medical needs when they fall sick? So many questions with little or no answers.
Not done with the rejig of the economy, President Tinubu also floated the Naira when he abolished the dual exchange rates he inherited from the Muhammadu Buhari-led government. For years, Nigeria operated a multi-tiered exchange rate system that was a magnet for corruption and capital flight. By artificially fixing the exchange rate, government policies enriched a privileged few who exploited arbitrage windows while discouraging investment, damaging export competitiveness, and starving the Central Bank of credibility. He took the bull by the horns and floated the Naira, ending the charade of artificial stability. While the move led to an initial depreciation of the currency and inflationary shockwaves, it also sent a powerful signal: Nigeria is open for honest business. The Naira float was accompanied by a commitment to unify the exchange rate, eliminate arbitrage, and restore investor confidence. For the first time in years, global financial institutions like the World Bank and the IMF began signalling renewed confidence in Nigeria’s long-term economic direction. But at what cost to the masses?
When he took over the reign of government two years ago, the Naira was exchanging for N770 at the black market to $1. Now, it is over N1,600 to $1. Those in the manufacturing sector are crying blue murder, while parents with children schooling outside the shores of the country are at a loss as to what to do. The Naira is so weakened that even the currency of many neighbouring West African countries are stronger.
Tinubu’s two fundamental policies have had tremendous impact on most Nigerians. Price of goods and service have tripled and more Nigerians have been dragged into the poverty net. To salvage the situation, Tinubu approved N70,000 as the new minimum wage for workers in the country after series of negotiations with labour leaders. Some state Governors approved more than the new minimum wage, which is a significant improvement from the previous N30,000. Even at that, the new minimum wage is still paltry considering the hyperinflation which does not give much room for sufficient purchasing power to consumers.
The latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) however offers a seemingly bright spot: headline inflation dropped to 23.71% in April 2025 from 24.23% in March, a sharp fall from 33.69% in April 2024. Government officials have highlighted this as proof that tough decisions are beginning to yield results. But inflation data alone hardly captures the experiences of those navigating Nigeria’s markets and filling their gas tanks. While there’s truly a slight drop in prices of some commodities, staple food items like rice, bread, tomatoes, pepper remain far out of the reach of many. Transportation and electricity bills continue to swallow wages, and job security remains elusive. In actual fact, what Nigerians are going through in the area of power generation and distribution is nothing to write home about, as many are paying huge amounts of money on electricity, yet there is little or nothing to show for it. Even government institutions on Band A, including the Aso Villa, have had to consider alternative source of energy. The recent disclosure that the federal government has set aside N10 billion for solar energy for the Presidential villa left many Nigerians in amazement. If the federal is complaining that it cannot sustain the payment of N47 billion yearly as electricity bill, how will individuals and private entrepreneurs then survive on the same exorbitant fees charge for electricity by many of the Discos?
To assuage the suffering masses, Tinubu signed into law, a student loan scheme, targeting millions of bright but economically disadvantaged young Nigerians. But most Nigerians preferred educational grants and scholarship awards to bright students. While the loan scheme has kicked off, it has been bogged down by allegations of sharp practices. Students are not getting the loans in time, while the N20,000 monthly stipends have opened another avenue for government officials to cut corners and warehouse the funds for their use.
However, what the Tinubu administration will achieve between now and December next year would go a long way in determining whether Nigerians will give him another four-year mandate in 2027. His reforms and policies should come with a human face.
Nigeria’s tax-to-GDP ratio has long languished below 7%, one of the lowest in the world, due to poor compliance, informal economic dominance, and inefficient collection systems. Tinubu’s administration moved to change this by inaugurating the Presidential Committee on Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms, led by Taiwo Oyedele. This committee is not only reviewing the tax code, but also harmonising levies, digitizing tax infrastructure, and eliminating multiple taxation that strangles small businesses. The objective is simple but profound: make tax compliance easier, fairer, and more productive.
But he encountered hiccups on the way as many Senators, particularly those from the North, rose in arms against the tax reform bills. After several lobbying and public hearings which saw the original bills undergoing several amendments, the bills are now set to be passed by both chambers of the National Assembly.
The good news to many Nigerians is that the Tinubu’s administration has begun offsetting some of our external debts, including the repayment of ₦2.59 trillion owed to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). This repayment marks a return to fiscal responsibility, signalling that Nigeria is serious about regaining its financial independence and restoring investor confidence.
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By reducing reliance on external credit and honouring obligations promptly, Tinubu is rebuilding Nigeria’s credit profile, laying the groundwork for future investment and long-term macroeconomic stability. It also sharply contrasts with previous administrations that allowed public debt to balloon with little accountability.
One issue that is now agitating the minds of most Nigerians is security, that has gone from bad to worse in recent weeks. Before 2023, Nigeria’s security landscape could best be described as fragmented and fatigued. Insurgency festered in the North-East, bandits terrorised the North-West, and separatist tensions burned in the South-East. Other parts of the country became hotbeds for kidnappers who turned crime and criminality into business, collecting ransom from their victims almost on a daily basis.
Since assuming office, Tinubu has undertaken a quiet but significant restructuring of Nigeria’s security architecture. He appointed experienced service chiefs, prioritised coordination between the military, DSS, police, and civil defence, and recalibrated regional security frameworks. Yet, things appear to be getting worse. The Governor of Borno State, Babagana Zulum, has been calling on the federal government to assist the state so that a large chunk of the state would not fall into terrorists’ control.
Interestingly, the security situation in the country has turned many Generals into emergency millionaires and they are not likely to give up without a fight from the federal government. We cannot continue to pump billions of Naira into ensuring that most parts of the country are safe and secured while bag eggs amongst our military and other fifth columnists sabotage the efforts for pecuniary gains.
There are reforms by some Ministers and agencies of government that are making concerted efforts to definitely improve the lot of Nigerians, but the long and short of it all is that the average Nigerians have found things rather tough in the last two years under President Tinubu. While we pray that his administration’s reforms start bearing fruits soon, his government should focus more on policies and programmes that would improve the standard of living of Nigerians as a matter of urgency.
Many Nigerians are hungry and angry, going to bed on empty stomachs. Nigeria is not officially at war, but we have many internally displaced persons within their own country. The President needs to tackle insecurity and ensure that farmers are safe on their farms. In the 21th century, we should not be talking about farmers/herders’ clashes. We should not give priority to cows over food crops for human consumption. Ranching is the way to go, so that farmers are assured that what they plant would be harvested for food and gains, not cattle food.
With two more years to go, Tinubu’s campaign for the 2027 general elections is already underway. It is doubtful if those in government will have time for governance again while electioneering campaigns take centre stage. However, what the Tinubu administration will achieve between now and December next year would go a long way in determining whether Nigerians will give him another four-year mandate in 2027. His reforms and policies should come with a human face.
See you next week.
