Governor Ademola Adeleke’s re‑election is now official. He won 19 Local Government Areas (LGAs) out of the 30 in Osun State. His closest challenger, Bola Oyebamiji of the All Progressives Congress (APC), secured the remaining 11 LGAs. We congratulate him for an impressive run. His victory is not accidental. It is the product of political instinct, preparation and a campaign that understands the terrain better than his challengers.
A Family Quarrel, Arbitrated by the Electorate
I chose to frame this contest as a family feud because of the quiet drama that preceded the vote. It was the kind of drama that unfolds behind closed doors, whispered rather than shouted, yet capable of reshaping political destinies.
As the governorship race approached, Adeleke made the consequential decision to join the ruling APC. He met President Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu in Abuja, accompanied by his elder brother, Deji, and his nephew, Davido. The meeting reportedly went well. Adeleke presented his plans, Tinubu listened, and both sides appeared aligned.
The next step was straightforward. The President informed the Osun APC of Adeleke’s intention. The pushback was immediate.
Tinubu, consistent with his long‑standing reluctance to impose candidates on resistant state chapters, stepped back. It was the same instinct he displayed in Anambra when, contrary to his personal preference, he allowed the APC to test its strength against Governor Charles Chukwuma Soludo’s APGA. They failed there. They have now failed in Osun. “Oro agba bi ko se l’owuro…”. Wisdom often speaks in a whisper, but its triumph is deafening.
Adeleke, rebuffed by his political kin, joined the Accord Party and won. The feud was settled not in private but at the polls, where the people of Osun delivered the final verdict.
Lessons from Osun
- Preparation Matters. At the off-cycle elections in Ondo, Edo, Abuja and Ekiti, the APC fought like a party determined to win. In Osun, that level of intensity was absent. The fire seen in Edo for months appeared in Osun only weeks before the vote.
- Incumbency Is More Than Security Control. A governor who understands his levers can shape the political climate subtly yet decisively. Adeleke understands the dynamics of the power he wields and he used them with precision.
- Aregbesola and Atiku Have Become Paperweights.
Atiku Abubakar won Osun in the last presidential election with Adeleke’s support. Yet he abandoned Adeleke and campaigned for Najeem Salaam of the ADC. Salaam did not win a single local government area. He got a paltry 17,180 votes where the dominant contestant crossed the half-million mark. It was a public demonstration of Atiku’s declining relevance. Ogbeni RAUF AREGBESOLA’s political fortunes have collapsed since his irreconcilable break with Tinubu and his expulsion from the APC. Those who once counted on him for influence in Osun have now seen the truth. He has nothing left to offer.
- Omisore’s Diminished Voice. Once the strongman of Ife politics, his influence did not materialise. Either he has lost relevance or he instructed his supporters to stand down. Politicians are incurable optimists, but this looks like the end of his gubernatorial ambition.
- Adeleke’s Alignment with Tinubu. Adeleke maintained that his support in next year’s presidential election is for Tinubu. Yet he openly criticised the EFCC for freezing a state account and praised Tinubu for intervening. After his inauguration, he may join the APC or remain in Accord while supporting the President’s second‑term bid.
- INEC’s Improved Conduct. Under Professor Ojo Amupitan, the commission has shown encouraging signs. Free and fair elections restore public confidence and discipline leaders. We can only encourage him to keep delivering transparent elections and to write his name in gold in the political evolution of Nigeria.
- Peace Must Always Be the Prize. The build‑up was tense and unfortunately lives were lost. Yet Osun avoided descent into chaos. Jonathan’s doctrine remains evergreen: no ambition is worth the blood of any citizen. Democracy is cyclical. Those who lose today may win tomorrow. The moral is simple. Power is transient. Peace is permanent.
- The People Have Returned the Gift. Adeleke’s first term was unimpressive. Other states like Akwa Ibom, Enugu, Lagos, Cross River, Kaduna, Abia, Ondo and Ogun have shown what purposeful governance looks like. Osun voters have renewed his mandate. They have returned the gift to him, and he must now return a better gift to them. If he improves, Osun wins. If he does not, the people will have merely received what they gave.
PostScript
This election was not merely a contest of numbers. It was a referendum on preparation, influence, humility and political timing. Above all, it was a family feud settled at the polls, decisively and peacefully, with lessons for all involved.
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