By BOLANLE BOLAWOLE
No army can withstand the strength of an idea whose time has come —Victor Hugo.
Iran’s streets rage with protests in a classic demonstration of the often-stated but hardly-heeded saying that there is a limit to human endurance. Leaders everywhere think little of the saying by the iconic United States leader, Abraham Lincoln, that, “You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time.” Even if you hide under the toga of religion, you cannot fool all the people all the time. The veil, at some point, will be parted! After 47 years of Ayatollah rule, the scales are falling off the eyes of the Iranian people. When your pocket speaks, no one needs anyone to incite him or her to action!
Hundreds, if not thousands, of protesting Iranians have been mowed down by the repressive Islamic regime; yet, the rage of the people is not abated, as they keep pouring into the streets of major Iranian cities protesting the parlous state of the economy and the repression that the regime has employed for decades to keep the population in bondage. The cage of religion is broken and the people in multitudes are escaped from the snares of the fowlers. Even if the Ayatollahs escape the ongoing rage of the people, their end may not be far in sight. For one, President Donald Trump has promised the protesters that help is on its way, even as he urged them to keep the pressure on the regime. A panicky Iranian regime is begging for negotiations. Besides, no kingdom and no empire last forever, even as no despot reigns forever. Like the Shah’s oppressive reign came crashing in 1978/79, despite US support, the reign of the Ayatollahs is also bound to come crashing, despite the deceit of religion woven around it.
Why do leaders fail to learn from history, condemning their nations to moving in cycles? The same factors that led to the fall of the Shah, propelling the Ayatollahs to victory, are the same as are leading to the collapse of the Islamic Revolution of 1979. According to a report, “The Shah of Iran, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, was overthrown in the 1978–79 Iranian Revolution due to widespread opposition to his autocratic rule, social injustice, economic mismanagement, and perceived subservience to Western powers. Mass protests and strikes paralyzed the country in 1978, leading to his departure in January 1979.
“Key reasons for the Shah’s fall include: Political and social repression (and) authoritarian rule: The Shah’s government was highly autocratic, violating the Iranian constitution and repressing dissent through a powerful and feared secret police, SAVAK. Political parties, trade unions, and independent media were all suppressed.
“Western alignment and perceived puppet status: Many Iranians, from the secular left to the religious right, viewed the Shah as a ‘puppet’ of non-Muslim Western powers, especially the United States and the United Kingdom, due in part to the 1953 CIA-backed coup that had reinstalled him as an absolute monarch after he fled the country. His close ties with Israel further fueled this anti-Western sentiment.
“Disregard for Islamic tradition: The Shah’s aggressive modernisation and Westernisation programmes, known as the ‘White Revolution’, clashed with Iran’s Shi’a Muslim identity and traditional conservative values, alienating many, especially the clergy. A controversial decision in 1976 to change the Islamic calendar to an imperial one was seen as a major insult to religious identity.
“Corruption and elitism: There was a widespread perception of extravagance and corruption within the royal court and ruling elite, which grew resentment among the general populace, including the poor and middle classes.
“Economic Difficulties: Unequal distribution of wealth: Despite a rapidly expanding economy and a windfall in oil revenues after 1973, many Iranians felt that the wealth primarily benefited the elite.
“Economic instability: The overly ambitious economic programmes and a subsequent sharp economic contraction in 1977-1978, along with bottlenecks, inflation, and austerity measures, caused widespread disappointment and anger.
“Strikes: By late 1978, mass strikes by government and oil workers brought the economy to a halt, a critical turning point that paralysed the country and weakened the regime.
“Rise of Ayatollah Khomeini and opposition unity: Khomeini’s leadership: The exiled cleric Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini emerged as a charismatic and unifying figure for the diverse opposition movements, which included left-wing, nationalist, and intellectual allies. His messages, smuggled into Iran on thousands of cassette tapes, resonated with a broad spectrum of the population.
“Martyrdom cycle: A Shi’a tradition of commemorating the dead 40 days after their death led to a cycle of escalating protests and mass mobilisation throughout 1978, strengthening the anti-Shah movement.
“Military’s neutrality: In the revolution’s final days, the Iranian armed forces declared their ‘neutrality’ on February 11, 1979, effectively removing the last pillar of support for the Shah’s regime and allowing the revolutionaries to take control.
“Ultimately, a combination of these deep-seated grievances, the Shah’s terminal illness (a secret at the time) which contributed to his indecision, the withdrawal of Western support under the Carter administration’s human rights policy, and the organised, unified opposition under Khomeini created a ‘perfect storm’ that led to the collapse of the monarchy. Religion and anti-American sentiments played pivotal roles in the Shah’s collapse. Riding on the crest on both to power, the Ayatollahs appear to have unduly overplayed their cards on both scores. Now, let us listen to a report of the factors that are leading to the Ayatollah’s own collapse:
“Iran’s economy has been primarily damaged by a combination of international sanctions, chronic economic mismanagement and corruption, and an over-reliance on oil revenues.
“Key factors include: International Sanctions: Decades of strict sanctions imposed by the U.S. and other nations over Iran’s nuclear programme, regional activities, and human rights record have been a major cause of the economic crisis. These sanctions have severely restricted Iran’s access to global financial markets and crippled its ability to export oil, historically the cornerstone of government revenue.
“Economic mismanagement and corruption: Internal issues such as persistent government budget deficits, a lack of productivity, and widespread corruption have undermined the economy. Government-controlled corporations, including those linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), often operate inefficiently, crowd out the private sector, and benefit from preferential access to resources.
“Oil dependence: Iran has been heavily dependent on oil revenues for its annual budget, making its economy highly vulnerable to fluctuations in market prices and international pressure. The inability to consistently export oil has led to severe revenue losses and fiscal instability.
“Currency devaluation and inflation: The Rial has lost significant value over the years, leading to hyperinflation and eroding the purchasing power of Iranian citizens. This makes basic goods and services unaffordable for many and has pushed a large segment of the middle class into poverty.
“Energy crisis: Poor maintenance, aging equipment, and energy price subsidies that encourage waste have resulted in a systemic energy crisis, including frequent power outages and a bottleneck on industrial production capability.
“Foreign military involvement: Significant financial resources are allocated to regional interventions and supporting allies abroad, which critics argue compete with domestic social welfare and infrastructure development needs.
“Brain drain: The lack of economic opportunities, political instability, and human rights issues have led to the emigration of millions of highly educated professionals, resulting in a substantial loss of human capital and potential for innovation and growth.”
From the above, it can be deduced that the major problem of the Ayatollahs was their foreign policy or national interest decisions. They moved from an extreme pro-West position to a truculent anti-West posturing. Since 1979, they have not been able to find accommodation with the West. They want the destruction of Jewish state of Israel. They seek nuclear weapons at all costs. They support radical Islam all over the place, even antagonising moderate Islamic states to the bargain. Iran and Iraq fought a gruelling eight-year war that served the interests of their collective enemies while setting the two combatants back many decades. Crippling sanctions imposed by the US-led Western coalition of powers have dealt crippling damage on Iran’s economy, denying it of resources needed for national development.
All politics, as they say, is local. Whatever politics a nation plays at the international level must not be allowed to have telling effects on its local population. Once it does – just like it did in the case of Iran – things will gradually fall apart and the centre would become unable to hold. Declining productivity, high unemployment rate, unbearable cost of living, and a devalued currency are no citizen’s friends. Patriotism cannot be successfully preached to an empty stomach. Nigerian leaders have a lot to learn from what is unravelling in Iran.
*Bolawole ([email protected] 0807 552 5533), former Editor of PUNCH newspapers, Chairman of its Editorial Board and Deputy Editor-in-chief, was also the Managing Director/ Editor-in-chief of the Westerner newsmagazine. He writes the “ON THE LORD’S DAY” column in the Sunday Tribune and “TREASURES” column in the New Telegraph newspapers. He is also a public affairs analyst on radio and television.
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