The Lagos State government has announced that the state is predicted to experience above normal rainfall during the 2026 rainy season across the state.
The announcement was made by the Commissioner for the Environment and Water Resources Mr. Tokunbo Wahab, during the media briefing for year 2026 Seasonal Climate Predictions (SCP) and socio-economic implications in Lagos State held at the Ministry’s Conference Room.
Wahab stated that the average annual rainfall amount for the year was predicted between 1650mm and 3030mm.
He said the rainy season was expected to commence as early as the last week in March while the end of season would be in the first week of December 2026.
He said specifically, Ikeja was expected to have an onset date of 31st March, cessation date of 2nd December with an annual amount of 1932mm, adding that Badagry was expected to have a rainfall onset date of 28th March and end of season date of 3rd December with an annual amount of 2010mm.
He said the Ikorodu area was expected to have a rainfall onset date of 31st March and end of season date of 2nd December with an annual amount of 1935mm while Lagos Island would have a rainfall onset date of 30th of March, cessation date of 2nd December as well as an annual amount of 1968mm.
The commissioner added that Epe was expected to have a rainfall onset date of 29th of March, cessation date of 3rd December with an annual amount of 1984mm.
He said considering all the twenty local government areas, total average of 1965mm rainfall amount was expected in the state.
He said the prediction for this year was based on a projected weak La-Nina and a neutral phase of the El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), saying the ENSO was a climatic pattern representing the interaction between the ocean and the atmosphere in the tropical Pacific Ocean
He stated the phenomenon which significantly influenced global weather and climate had three phases which included the weak La-Nina and neutral phases that were projected for the year translating to lower temperatures.
He added that it also translated to earlier rainfall onset, increased rainfall amounts and delayed rainfall cessation compared to the El-Nino or warm phase which translated to higher temperatures, late rainfall onset and reduced rainfall amounts.
He stated further that the 2026 prediction was based on a projected weak La-Nina and a neutral phase of the El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and also expected was an early to normal onset of the rainy season, normal to late cessation as well as normal to above normal rainfall.
According to him, Year 2026 is predicted to start with a weak La Nina in January, while the neutral phase of ENSO is likely to be expected to persist in the first six (6) to eight (8) months of the year; it also implies early onset of the rainy season, longer than normal length and delayed end of the rainy season of Lagos.
“As a result, above normal rainfall amounts are anticipated in the first peak of the rainy season while normal rainfall amounts are expected in the second peak of the rainy season” he added.
He recalled that the Nigerian Meteorological Agency, NIMET, on the 10th February 2026 released this year’s Seasonal Climate Prediction, SCP, which was a forecast of the expected patterns of rainfall, temperature and other weather parameters in the entire country.
He added that the collaboration of the Ministry and NIMET regarding the Annual Seasonal Climate Prediction had been valuable as a vital weather and early warning tool for farmers, planners, decision makers and operators in the various sectors and businesses that were likely to be impacted by the annual rainfall.
He urged residents to note that high amounts of rainfall could sometimes lead to flash flooding in some parts of the state.
He added that largely because strong winds were expected during the onset and the end of each rainy season, lives and properties might be at risk.
Wahab stated that another contributory factor to flash flooding was the rise in Lagoon level saying anytime there was high tidal movement, it might “lock up” the discharge points of drainage channels and until it receded, there would be no discharge and such occurrences also cause backflows, resorting to flooding.
He noted that as soon as the Lagoon receded, all the generated storm water would discharge and the roads would be free.
He added that the present proactive administration in response to the above phenomena, had strengthened its Flood Early Warning Systems, FEWS, to deliver reliable, timely and effective flood information at an appropriate response time.
He said the state government had put in place its own network of weather stations as well as river gauge stations to monitor the weather and river levels in the state as well as step up the preparedness for weather and flood related issues.
He reiterated that the state would continue to reap the benefits of careful and rigorous execution planning, as the flood control measures were being stepped up to contain any imminent heavy rainfalls.
He said the Ministry was continuing with its all-year-round drainage maintenance programme for effective and efficient flood control in order to ensure a flood-free and hygienic environment in addition to an efficient and sustainable solid waste management system in the state.
The commissioner noted that the Lagos State Signage and Advertisement Agency, LASAA, had been put on high alert to make sure advertising and communication agencies complied with regulations on the safety of erected billboards and telecommunication masts to prevent the incidences of their collapse which could be caused by high wind speed which was expected during the onset and cessation of every rainfall season.
He added that all emergency response agencies, traffic management agencies and other emergency-related organisations were in a state of full preparedness to help lessen the detrimental effects of thunderstorms that was associated with heavy rainfalls in the state when it occurred.
He said to effectively contain flash flooding, the government would continue the long-established synergy with the Ogun-Oshun River Basin Authority, OORBDA, which had ensured control and monitoring of the steady and systemic release of water from Oyan Dam to prevent flooding of the downstream reaches of the Ogun River.
“Therefore, the low-lying areas of Agiliti, Agboyi, Itowolo and Ajegunle communities in Lagos State will be closely monitored with respect to the likelihood of Ogun River flooding as well as all other river basins in the state” he said.
He said the government would continue to step up the enlightenment efforts to sensitize and advise communities in coastal and low-lying wetland areas of the State, to move upland when the need arises in order to avoid needless loss of lives and property.
He added that such residents included those along flood plains of major rivers and drainage channels such as Owode, Iwaya, Makoko, Badia, Ijora, Isaalu, Pota, Shibiri amongst others to always be on the alert and ready to relocate to higher grounds when the need arises.
He emphasized that the government would also continue to protect the water bodies from indiscriminate discharge of solid waste as well as erection of illegal structures along the drainage alignment/setbacks.
He explained to residents that it was occasionally normal to have flash floods when it rained which would percolate or drain off rapidly afterwards.
He said it was only when flash flood remained on the roads for hours that it could be reported as flooded while pleading with the media to avoid sensational headlines that could create panic in such situations.
He advised motorists to observe prescribed speed limits on the road to avoid preventable loss of lives and property during the rainy season this year as it had been in years past.
“To our people, we sincerely appeal that they refrain from deliberate acts that can lead to flash flooding. They should stop the indiscriminate dumping of refuse in unauthorized places, clogging drains with silt or construction materials, erecting building structures within and around drainage Right of Ways and setbacks” he said.
He also advised residents to report cases of drainage blockages, waste disposal into the canals and at other unauthorized places to the resident Engineers and Zero Tolerance offices in all Local Governments statewide.
He added that the drainage engineers were also available in all the 57 Local Governments Areas and Local Council Development Areas to attend to all drainage related matters during and after the rainy season.
He charged the people to support the efforts of the state government by complementing it through the regular clearing of drains in their frontages to ensure free flow of storm water as well as prevent dumping of refuse into drainage channels.
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